Saturday, September 18, 2010

Unadjusted Jobless Claims Fall to 2-Year Low

The chart above shows weekly initial jobless claims, both unadjusted (data here) and on a seasonally-adjusted, and four-week moving average basis (data here).  As Scott Grannis pointed out several days ago: "Actual claims have been falling steadily since early July, and have now reached a two-year low (see chart above). Claims are actually lower now than they were for the same week two years ago."

Further, actual initial jobless claims have fallen for the last five weeks starting in mid-August, and you have to go all the way back to the spring of 2003, more than seven years ago, to find a similar period of five consecutive weekly declines in initial jobless claims.  As Scott predicts, "If this keeps up, claims could prove to be a nasty surprise for the bears."


At 9/18/2010 12:24 PM, Blogger marmico said...

"If this keeps up, claims could prove to be a nasty surprise for the bears."

Unadjusted initial claims will be up for the week ending September 18. It happens like clockwork in the reporting week following Labor Day.

Talk about tieing your panties in a knot. I don't recall you dancing for joy when the red line is above the blue line. There are seasonal factors for a reason and that's why most people don't really pay much attention to the unadjusted data. For instance, the seasonal factor last week was 75.2 The seasonal factor for the week ending January 8, 2011 is 173. That's one large change in seasonal adjustments from the annual low to the annual high.

The big picture is that initial claims are basically flat in 2010.

At 9/18/2010 3:42 PM, Blogger bobble said...

interesting chart, tho i have to agree with marmico above.

to make this case more compelling it would be helpful to demonstrate why/how the seasonal adjustment process is incorrect

At 9/19/2010 9:44 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Hmmm, it would be interesting to see if Scott Grannis would also slap a graph together using the U6 numbers for comparison purposes...


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