Unadjusted Jobless Claims Fall to 2-Year Low

The chart above shows weekly initial jobless claims, both unadjusted (data here) and on a seasonally-adjusted, and four-week moving average basis (data here).  As Scott Grannis pointed out several days ago: "Actual claims have been falling steadily since early July, and have now reached a two-year low (see chart above). Claims are actually lower now than they were for the same week two years ago."

Further, actual initial jobless claims have fallen for the last five weeks starting in mid-August, and you have to go all the way back to the spring of 2003, more than seven years ago, to find a similar period of five consecutive weekly declines in initial jobless claims.  As Scott predicts, "If this keeps up, claims could prove to be a nasty surprise for the bears."