Monday, May 31, 2010

Restaurant Performance Index Above 100 for Two Consecutive Months, First Time Since Late 2007

"The outlook for the restaurant industry remained positive in April, as the National Restaurant Association's comprehensive index of restaurant activity was essentially unchanged from its March level. The Association's Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry stood at 100.4 in April, down slightly from its March level of 100.5. More importantly, the RPI stood above 100 for the second consecutive month, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators."

MP: The Restaurant Performance in April (100.4), like in March (100.5), reached the highest level since the fall of 2007, and stayed above 100 for two consecutive months for the first time since the recession started in December 2007. 


At 5/31/2010 10:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unemployment was in the 5s or lower until the mid 2008 and the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008 were the ones with negative growth.

How do you put the recession starting in Dec 2007?

Had the government let AIG, GM, and Chrysler go though bankruptcy and didn't do the unneeded TARP program, the country would be better off.

At 5/31/2010 11:59 AM, Anonymous gettingrational said...

Maybe restaurant business increases are the result of improvements since so many have been "closed due to remodeling"!

At 5/31/2010 1:26 PM, Anonymous morganovich said...

i'm not sure you are reading this data correctly.

you are looking at the expectations index, not the one for current conditions.

from the release:

"The Current Situation Index, which measures current trends
in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffic, labor
and capital expenditures), stood at 99.0 in April – unchanged
from its March level. The Current Situation Index remained
below 100 for the 32nd consecutive month, which signifies
contraction in the current situation indicators."

At 5/31/2010 1:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Had Mark used the Current Situation and Expectations Index chart in his post, we'd have seen that expectations over the last 8 years have always been wrong and this "green shoot" never got watered.

At 5/31/2010 2:09 PM, Anonymous gettingrational said...

"I am not sure you are reading this data correctly."

Same store sales rising steadily month after month after month is a convincing trend (chart from the article). So, we revert to the def of Recovey -- sustained growth or breaking previous highs.

At 5/31/2010 2:57 PM, Anonymous morganovich said...


first off, SSS rising while stores are in decline is not necessarily a sign of revenue growth.

second, a current situation index of 99 means things are still getting worse. same store sales are still below 100, so SSS is down too despite having very easy comparisons.

this is not a sign of recovery. at best it's a sign that things are not getting worse as rapidly as they were.


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