Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Largest Year-to-Year Gain in Case-Shiller Since '06

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices were released today for March, and got reported by S&P as showing "renewed weakness" for housing prices.  The chart above shows year-to-year percentage increases in the seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller indices, with the following highlights (which seem to indicate more renewed strength than renewed weakness):

1. Two consecutive monthly increases in February home prices (0.71% for the seasonally-adjusted Composite-20 and 0.66% for the unadjusted index) and March (2.42% for the seasonally adjusted Composite-20 and 2.35% for the unadjusted index), following 37 consecutive monthly declines in the home price index. 

2. The February and March increases were the first two back-to-back monthly gains in home prices since November and December 2006.

3. The March gain of 2.42% was the largest monthly increase in the Composite-20 index since October 2006. 

Note: The chart is based on the seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes.  The unadjusted indices produce almost identical results as those listed above.   


At 5/25/2010 3:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Both the CS-20 and CS-10 (unadjusted) have now declined for 6 consecutive months. If that is not weakness, then you ought to be more precise as to the definition of strength.

At 5/25/2010 3:21 PM, Anonymous morganovich said...

NEW YORK – Home prices fell in March from the previous month, a sign of a weakening housing market despite historically low mortgage rates and now-expired tax credits.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday posted a 0.5 percent drop from February.

Prices in 13 of the 20 cities tracked by the index fell month over month. Only six metro areas recorded price gains. One, Boston, came in flat.

Detroit and Chicago saw the largest monthly declines at 4.1 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. Cleveland enjoyed the biggest gain at 1.8 percent.

The numbers are especially disturbing because they show that improved sales due to the tax credits didn't translate into higher prices, said David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P index committee.

"When you loot at recent trends, there are signs of renewed weakening in home prices," he said in a statement.

In a healthier economy, extraordinarily low mortgage rates would pump up demand for homes. But economists say the job market is too weak and credit is too tight.

At 5/25/2010 5:09 PM, Anonymous Lay Waitin' said...

"It looks a little like a double-dip already. There is a very real possibility of some more decline." - Robert Shiller

Gee, who do I believe?

At 5/25/2010 7:53 PM, Anonymous Matador said...

FHFA data out today showed house price declines in all but one state from a year ago. The FHFA data has much broader coverage than C-S.

C-S also repudiated their own seasonally adjusted numbers due to a failure of their model. They specifically stated the non-adjusted data is more accurate.

With low interest rates and the housing tax credit, these numbers should have been much higher.

The patient is in critical condition and coming off life support. You tell me what's going to happen next.

At 5/25/2010 10:17 PM, Blogger KO said...

As CNBC points out, closings are contracts signed in the prior month or two. So March closings were January and February offers.

It'll take through June or July to figure out if prices took a little step down after the credit expired.

This article says that first time homebuyers started deserting the market in April, ahead of the end of the credit.


At 5/26/2010 10:32 AM, Anonymous Montag said...

S&P Case Shiller: Tax Credit Did Not Boost Home Prices in Q1

"The housing market may be in better shape than this time last year, but when you look at recent trends there are signs of some renewed weakening in home prices." - David Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P Index Committee.

Funny how the people who created this index and maintain this index and analyze this index on a daily basis don't share your rosy interpretation or outlook.

At 5/26/2010 12:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Since the CS methodology uses homes with multiple sales, I wonder if it has ha higher percentage of forclosures than the Realtors?


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