Friday, January 15, 2010

What To Do If Scott Brown Wins in MASS on Tues.

Chart above shows rising Intrade odds for Republican party candidate Scott Brown to win Tuesday's special Senate election in Massachusetts.

PAJAMAS MEDIA -- "A new poll taken Thursday evening for Pajamas Media shows Scott Brown, a Republican, leading Martha Coakley, a Democrat, by 15.4% in Tuesday’s special election for the open Massachusetts US Senate seat. The poll of 946 likely voters was conducted by telephone using interactive voice technology (IVR) and has a margin of error of +/- 3.19%.

This is the first poll to show Brown surging to such an extent. A poll from the Suffolk University Political Research Center – published Thursday morning by the Boston Herald, but taken earlier – had Brown moving ahead by 4%."


"As the likelihood grows that Republicans could win the special election in Massachusetts, it's worth thinking again about alternatives for health care reform in case that happens. I see three, in descending order of preference:

1. Finish up the House-Senate negotiations quickly and hold a vote before Scott Brown is seated. Republicans will scream, but how could they scream any louder? It's a process argument of murky merits that will be long forgotten by November.

2. Get the House to pass the Senate bill, and maybe use a reconciliation bill (which only needs a Senate majority to pass) to implement as many House-Senate compromises as possible.

3. Go back to Olympia Snowe. I have not seen any persuasive reporting, or even conjecture, about what Snowe is actually thinking. Her substantive demands have been met. By the end of the process, her only demand was to delay the bill by some unspecified time period, which is such a vacuous demand that it's hard to believe it represents her actual beliefs. Did she turn against the bill completely? Did she decide that she couldn't take the heat for voting yes? Or did she figure that, with sixty Democrats, her vote wouldn't really be needed so there was no reason for her to take the heat? If options 1 and 2 fail, we may find out about Snowe.

Obviously, the alternative is option 4: Crawl into a hole and die. Now, the Republican mantra is that we should kill this bill and "start over." But the truth is, there isn't and has never been a real Republican plan on the table to deal with, and even the conservative plans that Republicans haven't embraced are unworkable or do nothing. So walking away means admitting you did nothing on the issue that consumed most of your time, and wait for your November beating as a failed Congress running with a failed president. Numerous conservative pundits have advised Democrats to take this approach, but I don't think it's a very sensible plan."


At 1/15/2010 7:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's a VIDEO of Sen. Russ Feingold (D) holding a meeting with his Wisconsin constituents a few days ago.

Here's a story about Sen. Ben Nelson (D) confronted by his constituents at a restaurant in Nebraska:

Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson and his wife were leaving dinner at a new pizza joint near their home in Omaha one night last week when a patron began complaining about Nelson’s decisive vote in favor of the Senate’s health care bill.

Other customers started booing. A woman yelled, “Get him the hell out of here!” And the Nelsons and their dining companions beat a hasty retreat.

“It was definitely a scene in there,” said Tom Lewis, a 41-year-old dentist and registered Republican who witnessed the incident. A second witness confirmed the incident to POLITICO.

It’s a new experience for Nelson.

He used to be a popular figure back home, a Democrat who served eight years in the governor’s office and was elected twice to the Senate by a state that’s as red as the “N” on the University of Nebraska's football helmets.

But Nelson has seen his approval ratings tumble in the wake of his wavering over the historic health care bill.


The Democrats appear to be on a suicide mission. Their hope is that they can ram this pig down our throats and fine tune it later. I think they're in for a real blood bath.

At 1/15/2010 8:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Democrats have lots of plans in the event of a Brown victory, not all of them honest:

Massachusetts Sec. of State Has History of Playing Games With Absentee Ballots"

At 1/15/2010 8:04 PM, Anonymous morganovich said...

dear new republic-

option 5-

realize that this bill is a farce that is deeply unpopular and will not accomplish any of the things we need for our healthcare system. then realize that as elected officials, it is your job to represent the people, not to attempt to defeat your ideological foes at all cost up to and including doing severe lasting damage to the country. then scrap the bill and start over.

At 1/15/2010 8:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And Coakley is not being helped by her pledge to help pass the Democrat's national health care bill. Fifty-one percent of likely voters here say no to it while 36% say yes. Sixty-one percent think Washington can't afford it.

At 1/15/2010 9:07 PM, Blogger Craig Howard said...

It may not be a sensible plan for Democrats looking to preserve some shred of political credibility with their electoral base -- but it is sensible for the rest of us.

At 1/15/2010 10:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I guess bribing Senators with big pork barrel and special exclusions spending is a "plan" according to the New Republic.

At 1/16/2010 12:31 AM, Blogger KO said...

As big as that spike is, it's still only 40 now. So the intrade traders are still projecting Coakley to win.

If the polls are predictive, people can double their money by getting in.

At 1/16/2010 7:31 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Mit Romney, The Republican Governor of Massachusetts spearheaded the State’s Health Care Reform in 2006. The citizens of Massachusetts do not have an overwhelming “feel good” opinion about Massachusetts Health Care Reform and see the current legislation before Congress as more of the same.

Coakley favors the Obama plan and the “independent” voters is Mass will elect Brown. The Republicans will rejoice as they will have filibuster power in the Senate. The Democrats will be embarrassed and FOX News will have continuous coverage and commentary for days and days of how Obama was defeated. But the fact is nothing resembling responsible and accountable reform will be accomplished by either party It’s one seasoned Politician replacing another seasoned Politician.

At 1/16/2010 7:42 AM, Blogger W.E. Heasley said...


You have a good point . However is it the current level or the current trend that is the overarching trade strategy? Many times in investing the trend is your friend. The concept of the trend is your friend in politics is jumping on the band wagon.

The trend is your friend in Brown’s particular case may well be fueled by the concept of “your vote counts”. That is to say, in many elections one casts a vote in the obscure hope that the candidate represents your wishes in a broad sense. Your vote is important or so they say, hence you vote out of civic duty. However in Brown’s case suddenly “your vote counts” takes on an exponentially more important role. “Your vote counts” now takes on the game-changer or spoiler role. In other words, the average voter has additional incentive in that they can really make a difference with their vote for once in a blue moon. Plus, your vote can not only change state politics but can directly affect national politics as national politics are at a tipping point.

A last point regarding momentum is that people in the USA have a preference for favoring an underdog. If an underdog beats all odds and late in the game the underdog has a chance to win, the “crowd” will favor the underdog.

At 1/16/2010 10:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great. The choice is between a candidate who supports the nanny state and socialist healthcare, and one who supports imperialism and waterboarding. The usual dreadful choice the two parties offer.

At 1/16/2010 12:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

... one who supports imperialism and waterboarding.

You're late for your Code Pink meeting.

At 1/16/2010 12:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mit Romney, The Republican Governor of Massachusetts spearheaded the State’s Health Care Reform in 2006.

I would not have supported Romney's reforms, but in all fairness, the Democrats in Mass. have changed the health plan in so many ways that it doesn't look anything like what Romney proposed.

At 1/16/2010 1:21 PM, Blogger stevedp86 said...

i wish i registered to vote in MA...figured it would be worthless

At 1/16/2010 3:20 PM, Blogger KO said...

W.E. Heasley said...
You have a good point . However is it the current level or the current trend that is the overarching trade strategy? Many times in investing the trend is your friend. The concept of the trend is your friend in politics is jumping on the band wagon.

The trend in polls is there. But in a state that has John Kerry as a Senator, and had Kennedy as a Senator since before I was born, I just don't think the polls guarantee anything. Massachusetts is the home of the rich elitist.

I'm not sure there's any way to have a predictive poll for such an election. It's not only off year, but also a special election. But there's a huge national issue on the line. So whatever methods people use to try to screen for real likely voters are probably going to be wrong.

The real shame it that it will take an actual technical obstruction to stop the ridiculous health care "reform" bill. Not the majority of people being against it.

At 1/17/2010 11:22 AM, Blogger auglaize county said...

Scott Brown is a lot hotter than most Republican males--and obviously hashad excellent health care his whole life.

At 1/18/2010 8:46 AM, Blogger brodero said...


what would president palin do


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