Saturday, October 24, 2009

Intrade Odds: 2009 Governor Races Split 1-1

Based on futures contracts trading on Intrade ("The Prediction Market"), Republican candidate Bob McDonnell will easily win the Virginia's governor's race (94.9% probability), and the Democratic candidate Jon Corzine will likely win in New Jersey (63% probability in recent trading, more than double the 30% odds on October 1) in a 3-way race including an independent candidate, although recent polling shows the two leading candidates in a statistical dead heat.


At 10/24/2009 11:10 PM, Blogger W.E. Heasley said...

Poor old NJ!

At 10/25/2009 10:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is no doubt true in NJ. If the Republicans would smarten up and not split their vote between the Repub and the Independent, the Repub would win. Republicans, and I am one, must stop shooting themselves in the foot.

At 10/25/2009 7:31 PM, Anonymous Cromagnum said...

What about the three way race heating up in NY23?

Owens (D)
Scazzaporo (R)
Hoffman (I)

Its a special election to replace the incumbent who took an Obama post.

The two party machines are backing the D &R, But the R is so liberal that the conservatives are backing Hoffman. Palin threw in behind him.


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