Saturday, August 15, 2009

Recovery May Be Strongest Since Early 1980s

NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - A U.S. future economic growth gauge rose in the latest week, as its yearly growth rate surged to a 26-year high, suggesting that recovery will commence at the briskest pace in decades, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute
, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to a 47-week high of 123.9 in the week to Aug. 7 from 121.7 the prior week. Meanwhile, the index's annualized growth rate leapt to a 26-year high of 13.4% from last week's five-year high of 10.4%. It was the index's highest yearly growth rate reading since the week to Aug. 26, 1983, when it stood at 13.9% (see chart above).

"With WLI growth surging, the odds are rising that the early stage of this economic recovery will be stronger than any since the early 1980s," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI. Achuthan recently told Reuters that the national recovery would be stronger than many expect, though signs of such strong growth will not be apparent until sometime next year. "Next year, looking back you'll see that GDP, industrial production, sales, and even non-manufacturing jobs growth -- where 91% of Americans work -- began rising as recovery took hold," Achuthan said.

Originally posted at Carpe Diem, not for re-posting on Death and Taxes.


At 8/15/2009 1:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Their Leading Employment Index and US Short Leading Index's (and their growth rates) have really leaped in the last report. My company subscribes to the ECRI premium service, Lakshman comes in for monthly meetings/calls, in last week's call he stated that all of their leading indexes are "on fire". He's pounding the table on a strong recovery, even more so than they are letting on in the media. It was exciting to hear his message.


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