Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Empire State Survey Suggests Recession is Ending

NEW YORK FED-- The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers were flat in July. The general business conditions index increased to a level close to zero, rising 9 points, to -0.6. The new orders index rose above zero for the first time in several months, and the shipments index also climbed into positive territory. The inventories index slipped to a record-low -36.5. The prices paid index rose above zero for the first time since November, while the prices received index held below zero. Employment indexes remained well below zero. Future indexes continued to be relatively optimistic about the six-month outlook, but were somewhat less buoyant than in June. The capital spending index fell several points, but remained above zero.

MP: The four-month increase of 37.7 points between March and July in the General (Current) Conditions Index is the largest increase over a four-month period since the 33.4 point increase between October 2001 and March 2002, which signalled the end of the 2001 recession.


At 7/15/2009 10:16 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A sample of this morning's headlines:

"Survey points to improving U.S. factory outlook"

"Intel's strong numbers suggest PC business on mend"

"Stocks rise on upbeat earnings reports"

Of course, none of this come as any surprise to those of us - namely, me - who've been saying for months now that things were on the mend. The evidence has been piling up for anyone with an open mind to see.

Dancing days are here again!

At 7/15/2009 11:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

First Trust's Chief Economist Brian Wesbury and Senior Economist Robert Stein comment on June's industrial production/capacity utilization data released today:

"Industrial production was slightly higher than the
consensus expected in June and the decline was the smallest in eight
months. Typically, industrial production does not increase until 1-3 months after recessions come to an end. We are likely to get that increase in July or August as auto companies, witnessing large
inventory reductions for cars and trucks, are ramping up production
substantially this summer. Meanwhile, the drag from the non-auto portion of manufacturing is diminishing. In other words, we expect to get further confirmation within the next two months that the recession is already over."

I invite all the naysayers and doom-and-gloomers to go back and re-read that last sentence.

Let's see...back in May, who was it that was saying we were either already out of the recession or were very close to being so?

Oh, yeah! Me!

At 7/15/2009 11:57 AM, Blogger Hot Sam said...

Here is the actual Industrial Production Report.

I invite all cherry pickers to actually READ the report rather than relying on the worthless opinions of the cherry pickers Wesbury and Stein.

But for those who just want the summary:

Industrial production: DOWN
Output: DOWN
Manufacturing: DOWN
Mines: DOWN
Durable and non-durable: DOWN
Capacity utilization: RECORD LOW
Consumer goods: DOWN
Consumer durables: DOWN
Automotive products: DOWN
Appliances: DOWN
Computers and Electronics: DOWN
Furniture and carpeting: DOWN
Energy products: UP
Business equipment: DOWN
Info processing equipment: DOWN
Transit equipment: UP in June, DOWN in 2Q
Defense and Space: UP
Construction supplies: DOWN
Business supplies: UP in June, DOWN in 2Q
Materials: DOWN
Factory openings: RECORD LOW
Wood products: UP
Primary Metals: UP after 10 months of decline
Miscellaneous: UP
Food: DOWN
Beverages: DOWN
Tobacco: DOWN
Apparel: DOWN
Paper: DOWN
Chemicals: DOWN
Printing: UP
Petroleum and Coal: UP
Plastics and rubber: UP
Publishing: DOWN
Logging: DOWN
Electricity and Gas: UP

Yeah, that's one cheery fracking IP report! I'm eating green shoots for lunch today!

At 7/15/2009 12:19 PM, Anonymous Benny The Libertarian said...

Well, recessions do not last forever, so maybe this one is over. Employment may sink for a while longer, and you know the old joke--it is a depression when you lose your job, a recession when your neighbor loses his.
While I am a libertarian, within the current context, I have to say the Obama team is doing serious work.
Unlike the previous confederacy of dunces, the Obamanians show up for work, and have a plan. I accept them, in the sense of "When in Rome, do as Romans do."
If we are to have a mixed economy (and we do, and it is supported by both parties), then it just becomes a question as to which party does the best job administering a mixed economy.
Hands down, Dems so far.
This is distinct from my real wish for a much lower level of taxes and regulations, while responsibly running a modest federal surplus every year until the debt is paid off.
But, if the world is to be run by pimps, then who are the smartest pimps?

At 7/15/2009 12:38 PM, Blogger Paul said...



At 7/15/2009 2:02 PM, Anonymous Benny The Free Marketeer said...

Hy, if it wre up to me, we would have a flat national sales tax; no income taxes (corporate or personal); no HUD, no Dep' of Agri.; no DOL; and a military one-half its current size, and so on.
But hey, what I want and what is are worlds apart.
Sheesh, I posted here that there should be no public univeristies (I say privatize them), and I was accused of being an anarcho-capitalist.
Okay, so we all want our pet federal programs, and subsidies, and still want to call ourselves libertarians or free marketeers.
If that is the case (and it is the case), then it just becomes who is best at running the whorehouse.
I'd say Dems. Doesn't mean I like 'em, doesn't mean I vote for 'em.

At 7/15/2009 2:46 PM, Blogger Paul said...

"then it just becomes who is best at running the whorehouse.
I'd say Dems. Doesn't mean I like 'em, doesn't mean I vote for 'em."

You understand they're also adding scores of new whores, not just running the establishment, right?

Here are your competent managers, by the numbers:

At 7/15/2009 3:15 PM, Anonymous Benny The Libertarian said...

That's a great link.
But hey, the Repubs had control of DC--House, Senate, White Hosue, Supremes--for six years, and acomplished nothing except endless foreign wars, huge deficits, a new incredibly expensive drug program, and by the end of the Bush era we were pouring public money by the hundreds of billion into banks, automakers, AIG, who knows what. Under Bush, the US government even told BofA to merge with Merrill Lynch or else.
Will the Obama team be worse? Maybe.
I can hope we will get the hell out of the Mideast, and properly "regulate" our financial system. I would prefer near-total dereg, but since that ain't going to happen, the q. is who will do a better.
The Obama economic team seems earnest, while I doubt McCain even understood waht his options were.
Hey, it looks ugly, but I can't say it would less ugly under McCain, or another R-party majority.
I vote for other parties. I call the shots as I see 'em.
I gues that makes me an "anarcho-capitalist."

At 7/15/2009 3:35 PM, Blogger Paul said...

The Obama economic team "earnestly" pissed away $787 billion on a "stimulus" swindle, for starters. Health care "reform" will add at least a trillion more onto the pile. I'm not defending Bush's policies by pointing out the obvious fact that Obama is several standard deviations worse.

At 7/15/2009 4:07 PM, Anonymous Benny The Libertarian said...

You may be right. But Bush's drug program will cost more than Obama's stimulus--the drug program is forver.
National Health Insurance looks bad, I grant you that.
But don't forget, it was Bush that forced about 10 percent of the gasoline in the USA to be made from ethanol, a huge government intrusion and subidy for corn farmers--and one that may require more diesel to be burned than gasoline saved. It ain't market economics, that's for sure.
I'm just saying...who would you rather date: Phyllis Diller or Roseanne Barr? (Apologies to Diller, in case she is no longer with us, and actually she seemed like a fun lady, if not a great beauty).

At 7/15/2009 7:59 PM, Blogger Paul said...


You make a good point about the prescription drug plan, and Bush should never have signed it into law.
But go back and look at the context of the times:

We had a few years of artificial surpluses from the dot com/Y2K bubble in the late '90's-01. Naturally, the money was burning a hole in the politicians' pocket and so a new drug plan became a front-burner issue. I still remember Gore making it one of his cornerstone campaign promises. Bush did a "me too" but in a more market friendly variation. The GOP has done the "me too but less" thing for as long as I can remember.

Fast forward to today when we are running a two trillion dollar deficit, and yet The Messiah keeps throwing hundreds of billions onto the pile.

Again, this is not to excuse the GOP, but clearly there's a difference in speed if not direction. I'd rather live a little longer and hope for a miracle than go hurtling over the cliff right away.

At 7/15/2009 8:42 PM, Blogger KO said...

The US Government is going to spend over $1 trillion more this year than ever before. Since the US GDP is about $14 trillion and government is part of GDP, that's over a 7% increase from the Feds. And it's loaded toward the end of the year.

So it would be shocking if there isn't an increase in GDP later this year. Of course that'll be called a "recovery." Unfortunately, it's not the type of growth that sustains itself.


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