Friday, May 29, 2009

Restaurant Activity Index Increases For 4th Straight Month; Reaches Highest Level Since May 2008

(Washington, D.C.) -- The outlook for the restaurant industry grew more optimistic in April, as the National Restaurant Association’s comprehensive index of restaurant activity registered its fourth consecutive monthly gain. The Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 98.6 in April, up 0.8% from March, its highest level in 11 months (see top chart above).

“The recent growth in the RPI was driven by the Expectations component, which rose above 100 in April for the first time in 18 months, a level which indicates expansion,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of Research and Information Services for the Association (see chart above). “Although the RPI’s Current Situation indicators are still in a period of contraction, the solid improvement in the forward-looking indicators suggests that the end of the industry’s downturn may be in sight.”


At 5/29/2009 8:36 PM, Anonymous Cheech (in) Marin said...

You got indexes and surveys? I got indexes and surveys:

Chicago PMI

The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for May fell to 34.9 from 40.1 in April. New orders fell to 37.3 from 42.1, inventories rose to 31.5 from 30.6, and employment fell to 25.0 from 31.8. Prices paid rose to 29.8 from 28.4.

To view the report, go to:

MBA Delinquency Survey

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey reported that the delinquency rate for 1-4 family mortgages was 9.12 percent in the first quarter of 2009, seasonally adjusted; this is up 124 basis points from fourth quarter 2008 and up 277 basis points from first quarter 2008. 3.85 percent of loans were in the foreclosure process at the end of the first quarter, not seasonally adjusted; this is up 55 basis points from fourth quarter 2008 and up 138 basis points from first quarter 2008.

To view the report, go to:

How do you like them cherries?

At 5/29/2009 11:17 PM, Blogger The Dude said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 5/29/2009 11:19 PM, Blogger The Dude said...

The restaurant where I work has either kept pace with or surpassed our revenue from 2008 for each month this year. This past April was one of our best non-football months ever (SEC town).

At 5/30/2009 1:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

While disappointing, I wouldn't read too much into April's Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. With the Empire State, Philly Fed, Milwaukee PMI, and Richmond Fed surveys all improving last month, Chicago's relative weakness is probably due to unusually early auto production shutdowns in the region.

The more important data that came out on Friday (aside from GDP being revised up, of course) were 1. corporate quarterly profits, which increased for the first time in almost two years; and 2. quarterly consumption, which increased for the first time since 2Q 2008.

Those two increases, along with inventory corrections which should wrap up around mid-year, means we should see economic growth in Q3 and Q4. I think the markets, which anticipate business/economic turnarounds roughly 6 months in advance, saw this coming when they bounced in March.

Just my $0.02.


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