Friday, June 27, 2008

Signs of a Bottom to Home Sales?

Economists React

9 Comments:

At 6/27/2008 8:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The mortgage servicers are finally getting around to unloading their REOs. Dataquick estimates that 38% of all resale home closings in May in California were foreclosures.

 
At 6/27/2008 8:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like someone at the WSJ agrees with my post from yesterday.

Now. The question of the day is can we deal with $170 oil?

 
At 6/27/2008 10:07 AM, Blogger juandos said...

Well those who make a living in the housing market seem to be optimistic...

 
At 6/27/2008 11:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

juandos...since when has Lawrence Yun ever been right about housing?

I do agree that the housing market will start to improve barring any massive shocks to the economy. It will improve even if oil is at $170 or unemployment at 8%. That much is painfully obvious.

 
At 6/27/2008 11:30 AM, Blogger juandos said...

"since when has Lawrence Yun ever been right about housing?"

Well maybe anon @ 11:08 AM you can tell me when Yun has been wrong...

 
At 6/27/2008 2:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Lawrence Yun Watch

Yun is almost as hilarious as his predecessor, David Lereah, before he was put out to pasture.

 
At 6/27/2008 3:43 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Hey anon thanks for the links sir, much appreciated...

Interesting...

 
At 6/27/2008 6:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I do agree that the housing market will start to improve barring any massive shocks to the economy. It will improve even if oil is at $170 or unemployment at 8%. That much is painfully obvious."

Some housing will improve, but some might not. If energy goes up another 50-100%, people will really start taking into account the utilities cost as well as the traditional PITI. I call the combination PITI-U. If PITI-U is more than you can afford, DON'T buy the house. Those 4000-5000 sq ft McMansions in cooler areas might cost $1000+ a month to heat in the winter, that could be more than the property taxes!

Those won't sell for very much.

 
At 6/28/2008 7:30 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is a longer term chart of sales of new homes and resale homes.

Regression to the mean suggests that resales will fall back or overshoot the blue trendline. Realtors should consider getting a part-time job for the foreseeable future.

 

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