Thursday, May 08, 2008

Mexican Peso Rallies, Return of King Dollar?

Over the last 12 trading days since April 22, the US Dollar has increased by 1.67%, as measured by the Fed's Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (data here and here), to 99.4439, the highest level since February 26, 2008 (see chart above). The 1.67% dollar appreciation is the largest 12-day gain in more than 3 years, since the 1.7% 12-day gain through April 4, 2005!

More evidence here: The USD is selling at a one-year forward premium against 23 out of 32 currencies, including a one-year 2.4% forward premium for the British pound ($1.9564/BP spot vs. $1.9099 one-year forward) and a one-year 1.7% forward premium for the Euro ($1.5421/EUR vs. $1.5161/EUR one-year forward).


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