Thursday, April 10, 2008

No Recession.......

......According to First Trust Advisors (economists Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein)

Summary: Despite a loss of payroll jobs in the past three months, it is likely that real GDP grew at about a 2% annual rate in the first quarter. While real GDP may slow to just 0.5% in the second quarter, we still expect a sharp rebound to 3%+ growth in the second half of 2008. In other words: No Recession.


At 4/10/2008 8:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe its not the 'Recession' but the obsession for using word 'Recession', which is showing resemblence to Actual Recession....

At 4/11/2008 8:49 AM, Blogger Marko said...

The article cited includes this:

As a result, our forecast for the Q1 growth rate of
final sales (GDP excluding inventories) is 0.5% and
our forecast for final sales to domestic purchasers
(GDP excluding inventories and trade) is 0%, which
would be the first time since 1991 that this measure
has not grown.

Maybe that is why this feels like a recession to so many people.

I am noticing that most of my friends seem to use the term "recession" in a lose way - meaning merely that they are having a tough time and are worried about the future. I don't think you could feel a decline in growth, but you can feel when gas and food prices are hurting and the TV every night says "the end is near".

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