Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Collective Wisdom of Markets

From today's NYTimes, "Odds Are, They’ll Know 2008 Winner":

It is the latest iteration of one of the most important economic developments of modern times - trading on the future.

Over the last few years,
Intrade — with headquarters in Dublin, where the gambling laws are loose — has become the biggest success story among a new crop of prediction markets.

It has also been remarkably clairvoyant. Heading into the 2004 presidential election, Intrade’s odds correctly forecast the outcome in all 50 states.

Current odds for the U.S. 2008 presidential election on Intrade:

Democratic Nomination for President
Hillary Clinton 49%
Obama 21%
Edwards 13%

Republic Nomination for President
McCain 36%
Giuliani 23%
Romney 18%

President 2008
Clinton 26%
McCain 16%
Giulian 14%
Obama 11%

President 2008 by Party
Democrat 57%
Republican 42%

Odds that U.S. economy will go into a recession in 2007: 20%

Wanna bet? Open an account on Intrade.


At 2/14/2007 9:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

yikes...another running the country in '08

At 2/14/2007 9:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

meant to say "another clinton running the country in '08"

At 2/14/2007 11:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think so.

At 2/14/2007 11:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think so, every woman will vote for Hillary!


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