Collective Wisdom of Markets
From today's NYTimes, "Odds Are, They’ll Know 2008 Winner":
It is the latest iteration of one of the most important economic developments of modern times - trading on the future.
Over the last few years, Intrade — with headquarters in Dublin, where the gambling laws are loose — has become the biggest success story among a new crop of prediction markets.
It has also been remarkably clairvoyant. Heading into the 2004 presidential election, Intrade’s odds correctly forecast the outcome in all 50 states.
Current odds for the U.S. 2008 presidential election on Intrade:
Democratic Nomination for President
Hillary Clinton 49%
Republic Nomination for President
President 2008 by Party
Odds that U.S. economy will go into a recession in 2007: 20%
Wanna bet? Open an account on Intrade.