Each New ND Oil Well = A New $8-10M Business
The chart above shows the number of producing oil wells in North Dakota, which have more than doubled in the last six years, from 3,345 in April of 2006 to 6,734 in April of this year. Over just the last year, 1,425 new wells have been added from April 2011 to April 2012, at a rate of six new wells every business day.
As Bruce Oskol pointed out on his Million Dollar Way blog:
As Bruce Oskol pointed out on his Million Dollar Way blog:
"Each of those North Dakota oil wells can be thought
of as equivalent to a new $8-10 million business sprouting up in your
neighborhood, and all with private money on private land, with no federal money or taxpayer subsidies. Hundreds of new $8-10 million businesses sprouting up each month. I read somewhere that it takes about 75 other oil service companies to keep
an oil well running, including the tax accountants, the landmen, and, of course, it
provides a lot of work for federal and state regulators and bureaucrats. And
the initial cost of each well should be paid back with five or six years of production,
and unless the world quits using oil, the wells will keep pumping oil for 30 years."
MP: The economic impact of the increased oil production in North Dakota over the last year is the equivalent to more than 1,000 new $8-10 million small businesses being created in the state, which have created 7,000 new direct jobs in the oil business over the last year, and more than 26,000 new jobs in total throughout the state.
MP: The economic impact of the increased oil production in North Dakota over the last year is the equivalent to more than 1,000 new $8-10 million small businesses being created in the state, which have created 7,000 new direct jobs in the oil business over the last year, and more than 26,000 new jobs in total throughout the state.
7 Comments:
The currrent Administration does not reconise the creation of Additional jobs in ND,and other Shale related fields because he does NOT understand Business. The Closest Obama has came to the Bakken is Fargo.
New wealth in booming North Dakota oil town
July 6, 2012
Jobs paying $80,000 or more abound in North Dakota’s booming oil patch.
Henneberry, 57, ...is fortunate to be earning more with his experience and a master’s degree (in teaching).
He recently bumped into a former student from Montana who landed a job in the oil patch.
“The guy has zero college and walks out of high school and is making 90-grand,” he said. “To me that seems to be an injustice.”
Nifty study on potential future oil production in North Dakota - and, even more interesting, how long it'll take to "build out" the development of the formation.
Oil Production Potential of the North Dakota Bakken (PDF)
From pg. 7:
"Attention is now turned to an evaluation of North Dakota Bakken oil production rates. Because of the continuous declines in well production over time, new wells have to be brought into production to make-up the production declines in order to maintain a constant oil production level. Based on an average well production profile for wells with a 500 Mbbl EUR, the number of wells to sustain 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 MMbbl/d oil production rates for thirty years is 27,000 wells, 41,000 wells, and 55,000 wells respectively. The question explored is the timing of when the land development area becomes saturated with well development. [My note: As of April, ND had 6,734 producing wells]
The carrying capacity of the North Dakota Bakken is established above at 38,980 wells. The three oil production scenarios are shown in Fig. 8. The corresponding well counts required for three oil production scenarios are presented in Fig. 9. The graphs in Figs. 8 and 9 terminate on the year when well saturation of the well development area occurs. The year when well saturation occurs is provided in parenthesis on the cumulative labels in Fig. 9.
For a 2.0 MMbbl/d oil production rate, well saturation occurs in 2034. For a 1.5 MMbbl/d oil production rate, well saturation occurs in 2045. For a 1.0 MMbbl/d oil production rate, well saturation occurs in 2065. Policy makers will have to decide which is best for the U.S. economy."
So basically, there's another 22-53 years of development left in this thing.
The Bakken boom is over. It's apparent in the state level real GDP data. The North Dakota growth rate slowed from the 9.0% peak in 2010 to 7.6% in 2011. Expect to see further annual slowdowns through 2015 when the ND Mineral Resources projects oil production to peak at 800,000 barrels per day based on an oil price of $110 per barrel, plateau through 2020 and then decline.
To place the boom in perspective. ND 2011 real GDP increased by $2.4 billion in a $13.1 trillion economy.
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The GDP number for the state of ND is somewhat skewed because of major flooding in the western pert of ND resulting in over 6 million acres of hay and crop land not being planted/harvested. this value was place at 1.1 billion Dollars..
http://www.ag.ndsu.edu/news/newsreleases/2011/june-27-2011/prevented-planting-impact-in-n-d-at-1-1-billion/
MP: The economic impact of the increased oil production in North Dakota over the last year is the equivalent to more than 1,000 new $8-10 million small businesses being created in the state, which have created 7,000 new direct jobs in the oil business over the last year, and more than 26,000 new jobs in total throughout the state.
The trouble is that these businesses may contribute to the local economy without offering a return to investors. The 10-Ks show very large negative cash flows and more debt being added by the shale players. This does not happen if all those 'businesses' were a success.
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