Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Real Estate Recovery Watch

1. "Pending home sales bounced back in May, matching the highest level in the past two years, and are well above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors.  Both monthly and annual gains were seen in every region.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 5.9 percent to 101.1 in May from 95.5 in April and is 13.3 percent above May 2011 when it was 89.2.  The data reflect contracts but not closings. The index also reached 101.1 in March, which is the highest level since April 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit."

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said longer term comparisons are more relevant.  “The housing market is clearly superior this year compared with the past four years.  The latest increase in home contract signings marks 13 consecutive months of year-over-year gains,” he said.  “Actual closings for existing-home sales have been notably higher since the beginning of the year and we’re on track to see a 9 to 10 percent improvement in total sales for 2012.”

2.  DQ News --"The median price paid for a home in the Phoenix area last month rose to a 41-month high, increasing on a year-over-year basis for the sixth month in a row. The region’s overall sales trended slightly higher as mid- to high-end activity jumped again, compensating for a sharp ongoing slide in sales of lower-cost homes, especially foreclosures. reported. 

In May, buyers paid a median $150,000 for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Phoneix metro area. It was the highest median for any month since December 2008, when the median was $154,000. Last month’s median rose 5.6 percent from April and rose 25.0 percent from May 2011. The median's 25.0 percent year-over-year increase in May followed annual gains of 18.3 percent in April, 13.8 percent in March, and 7.5 percent in each of the prior three months."

12 Comments:

At 6/27/2012 9:31 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Slow and steady.

 
At 6/27/2012 10:10 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

CS index still showed price declines yoy for april, but, as it is a 3 month moving avg, one would expect it to lag.

i suspect it will turn positive in may.

i can tell you park city real estate is far more active and prices are way up from 2 years ago.

based on comps, the house i bought has doubled in price in 20 months.

because so many homes here are second homes and prices are very high relative to the national avg (avg listing price is $1.6 mn) this market is very volatile, but if second homes are turning, that's a good sign for the broader market, at least at the higher end.

 
At 6/27/2012 10:13 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Morganovich-

Do you have any anecdotal evidence on many homes are being purchased by foreigners? I read an article about wealthy folks from other countries buying American real estate and I was just wondering what you saw.

 
At 6/27/2012 10:17 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

jon

i have not seen that here to any great extent, but i'm also not sure i'm plugged in enough to really know.

it's been huge in SF, NYC, and miami, but i'm not sure they are buying here. they sure show up in the winter though.

 
At 6/27/2012 10:18 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

oddly, mortgage applications have gone nowhere for 2 years and remain at deeply depressed levels.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/06/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in.html

i suspect this has to do with more cash buyers and possibly more foreign buyers.

 
At 6/27/2012 10:28 AM, Blogger Moe said...

Solid write-up on U.S. housing market. Speaks to foreign buyers as well. If there is a better way to include links - let me know..


http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/bc0612_USHousing.pdf

 
At 6/27/2012 10:42 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

That is a really good report, Moe. Thanks!

Also, to learn to embed a link, use this.

 
At 6/27/2012 11:04 AM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

What percentage of sales were from distressed properties?

25%, which is down from 28%.

From the distressed homes site DSNews.com:

"On average, foreclosures sell for discounts of about 19 percent below market values, while short sales sell at a 14 percent discount."

so...

distessed sales, high-end homebuyers and foreigners still seem to drive the market;

but...

the market has seen the bottom and housing could add a meaningful amount to GDP growth. IMHO

BTW, it is very nice to drive thru neighborhoods, and see a lot of SOLD signs affixed diagnolly to For Sale signs.

 
At 6/27/2012 11:06 AM, Blogger Moe said...

Thanks for link Jon, no excuses for me now.

 
At 6/27/2012 7:10 PM, Blogger Henry H said...

Many of the other indexes reported a bad 1Q. Most of Case-Shiller's latest data is from the 1st quarter. The pickup didn't happen to 2Q. If the Case-Shiller's Mar-May report won't be available until the last week of July.

 
At 6/28/2012 6:39 AM, Blogger sykes.1 said...

In an earlier post, you or another econ blogger reproduced charts that showed that single family new home starts were only 20 to 25% of the 2005 level and that multihome starts were on 40 to 50% of the 2005 level.

It seems pretty obvious that despite recent upwards trends, housing is still in a depression.

By the way, banks are not offering refinancing loans so people cannot take advantage of the current historically low interest rates.

 
At 6/29/2012 11:58 PM, Blogger steve fridel said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 

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