Saturday, May 19, 2012

Obama's Intrade Odds Trending Downward

Obama's re-election odds on Intrade have been trending downward since peaking about a month ago at 61.5%, and have now fallen below 57% for the first time since early February (see chart).   

15 Comments:

At 5/19/2012 10:14 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Hey, this might be a good pick-up if you want to make some money. To be perfectly honest, with a steadily improving economy, I don't think Mitt has too great a chance.

 
At 5/19/2012 10:30 PM, Blogger W.C. Varones said...

The fact that this left-wing idiot is still above 50% odds I attribute to East Coast Media groupthink.

This buffoon is going down.

 
At 5/20/2012 5:48 AM, Blogger juandos said...

"To be perfectly honest, with a steadily improving economy, I don't think Mitt has too great a chance"...

Improving for whom?

Even the New York Times isn't buying that propaganda...

 
At 5/20/2012 12:52 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

The fact that this left-wing idiot is still above 50% odds I attribute to East Coast Media groupthink.

I attribute it to the GOP, which has not put up much of an alternative in Romney.

 
At 5/20/2012 8:19 PM, Blogger Bobby Caygeon said...

this is easy money if you short the POTUS. Mitt is going to walk easily....Nov 2012 will make Nov 2010 look like a piker.

 
At 5/20/2012 9:58 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Improving for whom?

I was just talking about in general. Employment is slowly improving. Housing is slowly improving. Industrial Production is up. Retail Sales and Wholesale Trade are at record levels. Purchasing Managers' Index is rising. International Trade is at record levels.

Mitt will have a difficult time, I think. He'll have a difficult time energizing the base and, quite frankly, he's not super likable by independents. A majority of independents in the primary voted for Ron Paul.

I may be wrong. But Mitt certainly has an uphill battle to win in November.

 
At 5/21/2012 10:41 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

I was just talking about in general. Employment is slowly improving.

Is it? Labour participation rates are collapsing. If you count those that are underemployed or given up you are looking at an unemployment rate of more than 20%. That is not an improvement.

Housing is slowly improving.

Perhaps. But only because the GSEs are not foreclosing and selling homes that they now own. There is still no evidence of a sustained recovery.

Industrial Production is up.

Thanks to a collapse of activity and a buildup of demand for replacement goods. The problem is the inventory channel. I see the Chinese in a panic because automobile companies have around 45 days of inventory. But GM was reporting 86 days of inventory. Would that be happening if production was really strong?

Retail Sales and Wholesale Trade are at record levels. Purchasing Managers' Index is rising. International Trade is at record levels.Mitt will have a difficult time, I think. He'll have a difficult time energizing the base and, quite frankly, he's not super likable by independents. A majority of independents in the primary voted for Ron Paul.

Mitt will have a hard time because he is not very different from Obama. He is a big government interventionist Republican at a time when many voters are looking for an alternative.

I may be wrong. But Mitt certainly has an uphill battle to win in November.

It makes little difference who the voters pick. Both are clever but ultimately incompetent fools who have no clue about reality.

 
At 5/21/2012 11:22 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

The US economy is adding jobs at a faster pace than the previous two expansions. I'd consider that an improvement.

Industrial Production is up 11% from the recessionary low and is rising faster than the previous two expansions. I'd consider that an improvement.

Housing starts are at the highest level in nearly three years. I'd consider that an improvement.

Are we at pre-recession levels? Of course not. But what we are seeing is a steady and sustainable economic recovery. And the President will use that to his advantage.

 
At 5/21/2012 5:54 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

The US economy is adding jobs at a faster pace than the previous two expansions. I'd consider that an improvement.

On what planet would a collapsing labour participation rate signal an improvement after a contraction?

Industrial Production is up 11% from the recessionary low and is rising faster than the previous two expansions. I'd consider that an improvement.

Over the lows it is an improvement. But it is still far below trend and still not sustainable. You do know that there is an election this year and that the Fed is doing all it can to help, don't you? If that is the best that you can get after trillions in new liquidity the economy is in serious trouble. You might try to see things as they are instead of as you want them to be.

Housing starts are at the highest level in nearly three years. I'd consider that an improvement.

Is that what you call this? I call your statement wishful thinking.

Are we at pre-recession levels? Of course not. But what we are seeing is a steady and sustainable economic recovery. And the President will use that to his advantage.

What you are seeing is what a flood of money can do even when the real economy is weak. I am astounded at how people who seem intelligent and logical can be so blind to reality even though they should have been taught by recent history to know better than to buy into bubble justifications.

 
At 5/21/2012 8:58 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Vangel,

You really are doing some amazing mental gymnastics, aren't ya?

 
At 5/21/2012 10:01 PM, Blogger Hydra said...

I see the economy slowly improving. More trucks bringing house parts and other goods to urban areas.

Republicans are alienating many groups, gays, Latinos, women, Muslims, and the tea party.

If things keep creeping ahead, Romney is in bad shape. If he wins, banks and insurors are given free reign, taxes are lowered and the result is yet another bush style collapse; if that experiment repeats itself, then Republicans are dead for decades.

If Obama loses, It will be a very long time before we see another minority president.

But, the data suggests a downturn occurs when an incumbent is defeated. Of That plays out, Republicans could won the battle and lose the war.

 
At 5/21/2012 10:07 PM, Blogger Hydra said...

What a flood of money can do when the economy is weak.

++++++++-+++++++++

You mean when businesses are hoarding cash?

Are you sayingstomulus works?

What of the trend was far too high, and growth is unsustainable? You have a plan for a slow growth or zero growth economy that works?

 
At 5/21/2012 10:32 PM, Blogger VangelV said...


You really are doing some amazing mental gymnastics, aren't ya?


Not really. I make my living by being right about the trends. To be right you have to be very clear about what you see and have to avoid narrative while you use logic and sound theory to understand what goes on. It was not an accident that most of the people who kept seeing the bubbles followed a particular school of thought while the clueless were ignorant of its teachings.

From what I see it makes little difference whether Obama or Mitt is president. Both are clueless big government promoters that are the favourites of party insiders. Neither will do what must be done to stop the slide. That means that even if the Fed manages to engineer what looks like improvement the economy will slide into a serious depression over the next year or two. My 13-year old is predicting a hyperinflationary episode in 18 months. While I think that he listens to too many Doug Casey commentaries I do not think that he will be off by too much.

 
At 5/21/2012 11:34 PM, Blogger Hydra said...

So, the election does not matter?

 
At 5/22/2012 3:54 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

So, the election does not matter?

Not much. Both candidates will increase the size of government. Both will continue with the useless foreign wars. Both will continue the War on Drugs. Both will watch the USD lose purchasing power and will call for more and more money printing. Both will let big corporations, unions, and other special interest groups write laws.

 

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