The chart above shows the "months supply of homes" at the current sales rate, which fell to 6.1 months in January, the lowest level since April of 2006. With the inventory of homes for sale falling back to historically normal levels, it's another sign that the real estate market is stabilizing, and it's only a matter for time before we see home prices trending upward.
Assuming you can believe those numbers. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nar-continues-tradition-making-mockery-itself-revises-december-home-sales-5-05
ReplyDeleteAssuming you can believe those numbers. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nar-continues-tradition-making-mockery-itself-revises-december-home-sales-5-05
ReplyDeletei just saw lawrence yun speak last week.
ReplyDeletehe's the chief economist for the national association of realtors.
one of his topics was why the inventory numbers were missing big piles of inventory.
he put current housing supply at 3.7 million, not 2.3.
the trend still looks to be favorable, but the months of inventory is more like 10, not 6.
the LPS data is out as well.
ReplyDeletefor jan there were 2.26mm delinquent loans of fewer than 90 days, 1.77mm of over 90 days, and 2.08mm in foreclosure, totaling 6.08mm. as that is a significantly larger number than all of reported inventory, it's going to be a key issue to watch.
I just know there is bad news out there, if I look hard enough, and read enough crackpots.
ReplyDeletei just know there are stupid comments out there if i just wait long enough for benji to post.
ReplyDeleteyep, its been warm this winter...home sales are seasonally adjusted...& months of supply is those on the market divided by that...
ReplyDeleteNSA chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Ejv9Tn5p3O8/T0UJ6mCgI2I/AAAAAAAAMMQ/MCkjeRiSSw0/s1600/EHSNSAJan2012.jpg
I wonder how many homes were demolished before becoming decrepit.
ReplyDeleteOn 60 minutes, in Cleveland, a foreclosed home would often get stripped of materials, effectively a $100K asset being made worthless to strip out $500 of materials..
__________________________
The US could have solved the excess houses issue simply by increasing SKILLED, LEGAL immigration. In fact, the time when it would have been easiest to do that, is passed.
I prefer Benjamin's comments over Marmico. At least he's civil.
ReplyDeletebill-
ReplyDeletei must say i disagree on that.
marmico seems to actually think about issues and links to actual data.
benji makes barnyard noises, appeals to authority, and ad hominem but never actually contributes anything much.
his post here is typical of his pointless grousing.
marmico posted a perfectly civil counter argument on the "economic lessons" thread today linked to good data.
i disagree with him and have explained why, but it all seems civil and reasonable to me.
perhaps you have had a different experience, but mine seems fine.
Honest question. Are all the empty homes currently in foreclosure included in this graph? If not I imagine it would take a much different tilt.
ReplyDeleteMorganovich,
ReplyDeleteTake a look at some of Marmico's old posts on Calafia Beach Pundit. I'm not saying he doesn't make decent arguments (in fact I think he was one of the first on this blog to call the housing crash and resulting financial crisis), but the posts I've seen are quite offensive.
bill-
ReplyDeleteoops, you are correct.
he just became unbelievably offensive because he lost an argument.
Well apparently those folks at CNBC haven't gotten the memo yet or their reporting is flawed...
ReplyDeleteForeclosures on the Rise Again
Published: Thursday, 16 Feb 2012 | 12:04 AM ET
One in every 624 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in January, up 3 percent from the previous month, according to a new report from RealtyTrac. Foreclosure activity froze in many states in 2011, due to processing delays after fraud, or so-called "Robo-signing," were uncovered in the fall of 2010. The thaw is now on...
I wish, Ben Jamin, would praise Professor Perry, as much as he does Mr Grannis...
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete"Are all the empty homes currently in foreclosure included in this graph?"
ReplyDeleteI can't speak for the national numbers but here in Denver the Realtor's numbers come almost exclusively from their in-house data, that is, from the MultiList. So if a bank has a property on the market or a property sold that didn't go thru the MLS, it doesn't show up. Foreclosures in process wouldn't show up but are really part of future inventory. Of course many foreclosures do go thru a Realtor, so adjusting their reported numbers is difficult.