For the last three years, I've reported the Intrade odds for the leading contracts to win the top six Academy Awards, as of the day of the awards, and here is a summary of those odds and results:
Best Picture:
2009: Hurt Locker (53%) YES
2010: The Kings Speech (79.7%) YES
2011: The Artist (94%) YES
Best Actor:
2009: Jeff Bridges (92%) YES
2010: Colin Firth (94.1%) YES
2011: Jean Dujardin (63%) YES
Best Actress:
2009: Sandra Bullock (68%) YES
2010: Natalie Portman (89.9%) YES
2009: Sandra Bullock (68%) YES
2010: Natalie Portman (89.9%) YES
2011: Viola Davis (70%) NO
Best Supporting Actor:
2009: Christoph Waltz (93.5%) YES
2010: Christian Bale (88.9%) YES
2011: Christopher Plummer (94.5%) YES
Best Supporting Actress:
2009: Mo'Nique (86%) YES
2010: Mellisa Leo (64.9%) YES
2011: Octavia Spencer (94%) YES
Best Director:
2009: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (85%) YES
2009: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (85%) YES
2010: David Fincher, The Social Network (63.5%) NO
2011: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist (80%) YES
Bottom Line: In 16 out of 18 cases over the last three years for the major awards, the leading Intrade contracts correctly predicted the Oscar winners.
InTrade sure is an interesting website, isn't it? I have to admit, it's one of the first things I'll check in the morning.
ReplyDeleteAnd notice, the two it got wrong had relatively low percentages, which implies a bit more uncertainty about those situations.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure this is the right way to think about it. The market wasn't predicting that the Hurt Locker would win in 2009, it was saying that it had a 53% chance of winning. It was saying that if we ran the 2009 Best Picture race 10,000 times, the Hurt Locker would be expected to win 5300 times and lose 4700 times.
ReplyDeleteIf you see 40 bets with market probailities of 51% and all 40 bets "win" then the market was, on average, drastically underpredicting the true probability of these events occuring. And that would not be a good track record for the intrade market.
The market wasn't predicting that the Hurt Locker would win in 2009, it was saying that it had a 53% chance of winning.
ReplyDeleteActually, what it was saying is 53% of those who "invested" think the hurt locker would win.
the other key takeaway:
ReplyDelete2011 was a horrible year for movies.
the other key takeaway:
ReplyDelete2011 was a horrible year for movies.
Seconded
Hurt Locker pretty much sucked, too. Thanks for reminding me.
ReplyDeleteActually, what it was saying is 53% of those who "invested" think the hurt locker would win.
ReplyDelete================================
Delphi decision making works.
Delphi decision making works
ReplyDeleteNot the same thing as what's going on here.