Monday, January 09, 2012

Phoenix Home Sales Up By 9%, Prices Are Stable

DQ News -- "The number of homes that resold in the Phoenix area rose above a year earlier for the twelfth month in a row in November as activity increased across the price spectrum. A variety of median sale price measures trended higher month-to-month, and the region’s overall median sale price fell year-over-year by less than 1 percent – the smallest dip since the median began to erode consistently in summer 2010.  

A total of 7,766 new and resale Phoenix area houses and condos sold in November, which was up 9.0% from a year earlier but down by 3.5% from October.  Phoenix-area sales usually drop between October and November, with that decline averaging 7.1% since 1994. 

The median price paid in November for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Phoenix region was $127,000. That was up 5.8% from October but down 0.4% from a year earlier. November’s median was the highest since November 2010, when it was $127,500. Also, the year-over-year decline in the median was the lowest since the median began to drop consistently in July 2010."

MP: It's not a great report, but the Phoenix-area real estate market is starting to show some signs of a gradual recovery.  Home sales increased by 9% in November over last year, led by especially strong sales gains for new homes (32.6%) and condos (10.4%).  Median home prices have stabilized at around $127,000 for the last year as the market seems to have found a price bottom.

Update: Even more recent data on Phoenix home sales through the month of December confirm that a real estate recovery is taking place there (and also see first comment below):

"The number of Phoenix-area home sales in 2011 climbed to their highest level since the housing market’s peak in 2006. Foreclosures fell to their lowest level since 2008. And the number of Phoenix-area homes listed for sale has dropped to a figure not seen since 2005, indicating demand is finally exceeding supply. This is a complete turnaround from 2007, when the housing crash started and cheap foreclosure homes flooded the market while buyers were few."

13 Comments:

At 1/09/2012 3:50 PM, Blogger Paul said...

I can tell you there's not a large amount of inventory on the MLS. Good deals seem to be moving quickly.

 
At 1/09/2012 7:05 PM, Blogger misterjosh said...

I check my house on Zillow every couple of months & they say it's going up. Now I'm only $27,000 underwater!

I think my neighborhood crashed harder than most around the country. Purchased in Feb 2003 for 130, it's now rated at 93. (a foolish re-fi accounts for the difference if you just felt the compulsion to whip out mortgage calculator)

 
At 1/09/2012 7:36 PM, Blogger Walt G. said...

misterjosh,

Zillow's estimated value of my house has been about 15-20% low for the last year or so. You need to pull actual sales from houses like yours in your same neighborhood and adjust the differences to your house for an accurate estimate. Zillow might be accurate for your house and it might not.

 
At 1/09/2012 7:36 PM, Blogger Evil Red Scandi said...

But with interest rates artificially way below market rates, how much of this is stabilization of supply and demand, and how much is just re-inflating the bubble?

Bonus points for any argument that's not a complete frigging tautology.

 
At 1/09/2012 8:08 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Guys are making money in Los Angeles buying run-down houses for $200k, living in them and fixing them up, and flipping for $300k in one year.

They have been doing this all through the recession, and even more so now.

 
At 1/09/2012 8:08 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7pnjzCuSv8

BTW, interesting Friedman rap on the gold standard.

 
At 1/09/2012 8:23 PM, Blogger Methinks said...

But with interest rates artificially way below market rates, how much of this is stabilization of supply and demand, and how much is just re-inflating the bubble?

My thoughts exactly. And let's not forget that government is encouraging the same loose lending standards to the same poor credit risks as before.

I'd like to be more optimistic, but government distortion makes it so damn difficult.

 
At 1/09/2012 10:07 PM, Blogger Cabodog said...

Government distortion is the norm. Live with it.

 
At 1/10/2012 6:37 AM, Blogger matto said...

this is a positive change for phoenix home sales up to 9% may this going on more stable.TestKing, IT Exams King, BrainDumps, pass4sure, ExamCollection, RealExams, ActualTests

 
At 1/10/2012 2:46 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

MP: It's not a great report, but the Phoenix-area real estate market is starting to show some signs of a gradual recovery.

I would not get too excited yet. There are still many questions about the data.

 
At 1/10/2012 2:53 PM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

The DQ News report is a private research firm, not connected with the Realtors. They use court record, not the MLS data.

 
At 1/11/2012 10:37 PM, Blogger james said...

It is amazing to view this whole housing bubble in hindsight. When their is a feeling of euphoria and excitement about something everybody gets caught up in it. Nobody in the bubble believes it will ever end but it will' This over confidence than causes the bubble to get bigger and bigger all the time until it bursts of its own weight.

 
At 1/12/2012 7:51 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

It is amazing to view this whole housing bubble in hindsight. When their is a feeling of euphoria and excitement about something everybody gets caught up in it. Nobody in the bubble believes it will ever end but it will' This over confidence than causes the bubble to get bigger and bigger all the time until it bursts of its own weight.

It is not amazing at all. Human beings like being part of a herd and when are choose to follow emotion rather than think logically. Housing is just one example. We saw the same thing when supposedly intelligent analysts were telling investors in the late 1990s that the critics were not 'getting IT' because they did not understand that the growth of eyeballs was very important since it would lead to monetization. And today we have analysts telling people that shale gas companies are a good holding even though they are bleeding red ink and chewing through capital as they are forced to produce at a loss or risk losing their supposed assets in the form of leases on uneconomic land packages.

 

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