Tuesday, December 06, 2011

The "Shale Gale" Goes Global with Discoveries in Argentina and China, "Peak Oil" Losing Relevance

1. Peak Oil Debate Losing Relevance Due to New Upstream Technology -- "The debate over whether the world's reserves of hydrocarbons have now peaked and are in decline has lost relevance over recent years as new technology allows oil companies to find and exploit new hydrocarbon sources, the CEO of Repsol Antonio Brufau said today.

Brufau said progress made in exploring and developing ultra-deepwater areas, unconventional oil and gas sources and the move into remote areas such as the Arctic, have been key to growing global reserves of oil and gas. "The speed at which technology changes and its consequences have taken us largely by surprise. The peak oil debate has lost a great deal of its relevance in the past three years," Brufau told the World Petroleum Congress in Doha. 

Repsol continued to more than replace its proven oil and gas reserves outside Argentina this year and will accelerate output from 2015 onwards as it converts contingent resources into proven reserves. Brufau pointed to developments in the U.S. shale gas industry and highlighted Repsol's own plans to develop a huge shale oil and gas area in Argentina. The Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas discovery in Argentina covers nearly 1 billion equivalent barrels of recoverable shale oil."

2.  Shell Strikes Shale Gas in China -- "Royal Dutch Shell has found shale gas in China, a development that could cap imports in a market natural gas producers are hoping will drive demand.  An official with Shell's partner, PetroChina, a unit of the country's top energy group, state-owned CNPC, said drilling results from two wells Shell drilled had been positive.

"Shell has two vertical wells and they got very good primary production," Professor Yuzhang Liu, Vice president of Petrochina's Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development (RIPED), said in an interview at the sidelines of the World Petroleum Congress in Doha. "It's good news for shale gas," said Liu. China currently has no commercial shale gas production."

HT: Mike W.

11 Comments:

At 12/06/2011 10:20 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Shell Oil Company’s latest research (2011), “Signals and Signposts”:

Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 - An era of volatile transitions

Underlying global demand for energy by 2050 could triple from its 2000 level if emerging economies follow historical patterns of development.

Natural innovation and competition could spur improvements in energy efficiency to moderate underlying demand by about 20% over this
time.

Ordinary rates of supply growth -- taking into account technological,
geological, competitive, financial and political realities -- could naturally boost energy production by about 50%.

But this still leaves a gap between business-as-usual supply and business-as-usual demand of around 400 EJ/a – the size of
the whole industry in 2000.

This gap – this Zone of Uncertainty – will have to be bridged by some combination of
extraordinary demand moderation and extraordinary production acceleration.

 
At 12/06/2011 10:45 AM, Blogger Matthew said...

"This gap – this Zone of Uncertainty – will have to be bridged by some combination of extraordinary demand moderation and extraordinary production acceleration"

Extraordinary? Maybe to the ignorant. The rest of us know it best as *prices*. Nothing to see here. Move along.

 
At 12/06/2011 11:29 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Matthew says: "Extraordinary? Maybe to the ignorant. The rest of us know it best as *prices*."

Examples of "extraordinary" events include slower economic growth and rising Iraqi oil production.

 
At 12/06/2011 11:39 AM, Blogger juandos said...

Not to worry, we've saddled ourselves with our own peak oil problem...

 
At 12/06/2011 11:52 AM, Blogger Benjamin said...

The fossil fuels market will be glutted in five to 10years.

 
At 12/06/2011 12:24 PM, Blogger Matthew said...

PeakTrader wrote: " Examples of "extraordinary" events include slower economic growth and rising Iraqioil production. "

Do not confuse a symptom for a cause. You failed to dig just one layer deeper and missed it. Progressives often get causality backwards.

 
At 12/06/2011 12:52 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Matthew, in a one-dimensional world, the price of oil can be the sole cause of economic growth or oil production.

 
At 12/06/2011 4:00 PM, Blogger kmg said...

Progressives often get causality backwards.

Which is why it is the biggest irony ever that they call themselves 'progressive'.

They are always backward-looking and behind the curve.

 
At 12/06/2011 4:11 PM, Blogger Che is dead said...

One Million Jobs

 
At 12/06/2011 9:06 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Examples of "extraordinary" events include slower economic growth and rising Iraqi oil production.

Depletion is running at more than 5% per year. That means that you need more than 4 mbpd of new production added every year just to stay even. The math does not work boys and girls. Particularly when the shale producers are chewing through capital because the energy returns are negative.

 
At 12/07/2011 2:03 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Hey che, re: Dr. Steven Hayward explains path to North America's promising energy future...

Thanks for that link...

 

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home