U.S. Exports, Total Trade Reach Record Highs
The total volume of U.S. international trade activity (exports + imports) reached an all-time record high in September (not adjusted for inflation, BEA report here) of $404 billion, slightly higher than the previous record of $401 billion in July 2011 (see top chart above). Compared to the recession-related, cyclical low of $277 billion of trade activity in May 2009, there has been a 46% increase in U.S. trade, as the U.S. and world economies have gradually recovered from the 2008-2009 recession.
The September volume of exports ($180.3 billion) was the highest monthly export volume in history (in both nominal and real terms, see bottom chart), a further sign that a recovery in worldwide economic conditions has increased demand for U.S. products. There was an overall monthly nominal increase of 1.4% for shipments of U.S. exports in September, including increases in industrial supplies (3.2%), capital goods (0.3%) automobiles (1.7%) and an especially strong gain in consumer goods (5.3%).
3 Comments:
this chart is NOMINAL data.
take a look at page 12 of the release and you will see that the whole up-slope in 2011 is being driven by inflation.
imports have been flat all year in real terms, just fluctuating between 100-102.
real imports are actually down, though not much and you could argue that it is also just bouncing around a flattish line.
the upslope of this line for 2011 is pretty much all inflation.
real imports + exports in january were 152 + 100 = 252.
in September, they were 148 + 103 = 251.
to depict that as a big uptrend by using nominal data seems very misleading to me, especially from a guy who likes to claim inflation is so low.
nominally, we are up 5.3% in X + M from jan-sept, but down 0.4% in real terms.
all you are charting is the over 7% annualized inflation in imports and exports. in real terms (using the reports own chained 2005 dollars) September was below january.
Not adjusted for inflation? Given the true inflation rate, rather than what the BLS is claiming, shouldn't we care about exports in real terms?
Exports in the bottom chart are displayed in both nominal and real terms.
Post a Comment
<< Home