Real Consumer Spending Up in July to Record High
The BEA reported today that real consumer spending increased in July to $9.428 trillion (2005 dollars), setting a new monthly record (see chart above). Consumer spending in July increased by 0.46% from June, and by 2.3% from a year ago. That was the highest monthly increase in consumer spending since December 2009, 19 months ago. By major product type, the largest increase in July was the 2% jump in spending by consumers on durable goods.
In comparison to the cyclical peak in December 2007 when the recession started, real consumer spending in July was 1.1% and $100.4 billion above that pre-recession level. Despite low readings for consumer confidence based on survey data, the spending data tell a different story: consumer spending is coming back strong to new record levels almost every month.
9 Comments:
PCE up 0.8% and PCI up 0.3% sounds like financial stress to me.
would be interesting to see the 2 series overlaid.
are savings rates back in a downtrend?
So, no lack of "aggregate demand" then, eh?
Do you think inflation expectations have anything to do with it?
realsimon-
it's possible, though i suspect that using too low a deflator to generate the real numbers actually has more to do with it.
http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html?Manufacturing#category=Manufacturing&chart=ISMFedAug2011.jpg
nice chart of all the regional fed manufacturing indexes through august.
makes it look like we are in for a bad ISM number when it comes out.
I'd be a little cautious, still. I don't normally follow the Goldman Sachs Weekly Retail Spending Report, but I noticed the last two have been Down 1.5 and 1.0%, respectively. August might not follow through as well as July.
If the consumer is spending like gangbusters, why is unemployment so high?
I wonder what this graph would look like if also adjusted for population growth? Not too good.
From the folks at Zer0Hedge: Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession...
Just saying is all...
"Everyman" here . . . is this only a measure of how much money went from Point A to Point B? If so, is there a way to see how many "widgets" were purchased? I can use a ton of gas in first gear but still won't go very far very fast . . . Thanks for playing.
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