CHICAGO FED -- "Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to –0.06 in July from –0.38 in June (see chart above). Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index improved in July; only the sales, orders, and inventories category deteriorated from June.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.29 in July from –0.54 in June. July’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. Likewise, the economic slack reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year."
Background: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. The indicators are drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
3 Comments:
To take the chart seriously we need to believe in the integrity of the data. That may not be very wise.
Meanwhile, Home Loan Delinquencies are running at 8.4%. That's Huge.
It looks like the Chicago Fed number is strongly influenced by July's Industrial Production number, which is, mostly, about The Heat Wave, and Electrical Production.
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