Wednesday, July 27, 2011

World Trade and Output Continue to Improve

The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis released its monthly report this week on world trade and world industrial production for the month of May.  Here are some of the highlights:

1. World trade volume increased by 2.3% in May from the previous month, following a decrease of 2.2% in April.  Imports of all major regions and countries increased strongly. However, exports of the emerging countries declined further with the exception of Latin-America. Exports of the advanced economies recovered to the highest level since the outbreak of the financial crisis, but are still 4% down on the pre-crisis peak. 

2. On an annual basis, world trade volume was above its year-ago level by 7.14%.

3. World industrial production recovered as well in May by 0.8% from the previous month, following a slightly revised 0.2% decline in April. Half of the rise was due to the ongoing recovery in Japan, with a mixed picture for the other major countries and regions.

4. Compared to May of last year, world industrial output gained almost 5% (4.76%), and is almost 6% (5.94%) above the pre-recession level in December 2007. 

Bottom Line: We still face many economic uncertainties (and they sure spooked the market today), but the upward trends in both world trade and output through May to levels above their pre-recession levels suggests a worldwide economic recovery from the dreadful economic conditions of 2008 and 2009.  If the upward trends in trade and output continue, we can look forward to a gradually improving world economy. But if the economic headwinds continue to accumulate, we could be looking at a slowdown in Q3 and Q4.

4 Comments:

At 7/27/2011 3:36 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Well apparently its NOT happening in this country if this AP story is at all factual: Fed survey: Growth slows across much of the US

The economy worsened in much of the country earlier this summer, hampered by high unemployment, weak home sales and signs of a slowdown in manufacturing.

A survey by the Federal Reserve, released Wednesday, found that weak consumer spending, slow job growth and tight credit are restraining growth into the second half of the year.

Growth slowed in seven of the Fed's 12 bank regions in June and early July, the report found, compared with the spring. That marks the worst showing this year. (there's a bit more)

This of course may just be a very temporary downward spike...

 
At 7/27/2011 6:03 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

China has become the largest trading partner of every nation in the East.

The USA, however, has the biggest aircraft carriers and a fleet in the China Sea, and we also have Detroit.

 
At 7/27/2011 6:05 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

that's like saying:

china has well educated students and we have benji.

true, but not terribly relevant.

 
At 7/30/2011 8:21 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

We still face many economic uncertainties (and they sure spooked the market today), but the upward trends in both world trade and output through May to levels above their pre-recession levels suggests a worldwide economic recovery from the dreadful economic conditions of 2008 and 2009.

Yes, world trade is doing well. But much of the economic activity is built on reckless lending to people who will not pay back the loans. And the US is bankrupt as is Europe. Expect a lot of changes and resets over the next few years.

 

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