Saturday, July 16, 2011

Southern California, Bay Area Home Sales Highest in a Year, Median Prices Highest Since 2010

1. Southern California home sales in June shot up more than usual from May (11.6% vs. 6.2% historical average) to the highest level for any month since June 2010, when the market got its last big boost from homebuyer tax credits. The median price paid for all new and resale Southland houses and condos purchased last month was $285,000. That was up 1.8 percent from $280,000 in May and the highest since $290,000 last December, but still down 5.0 percent from $300,000 in June 2010.

2. Bay Area home sales rose sharply last month from May to the highest level for any month since June 2010, when outgoing homebuyer tax credits gave housing demand a final boost, and median prices edged up to a 2011 high. The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area last month was $377,750, up 1.5 percent from May but down 7.9 percent from $410,000 in June 2010. Last month’s median was the highest since it was $380,000 last November.

MP: These reports are somewhat mixed and not completely positive, and the reporting company DQNews.com says that "Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions."  But the fact that home sales in Southern California and the S.F. Bay Area are at 12-month highs and June median prices are the highest for 2011 in both markets suggests that there are some modest improvements taking place in California, and there even might be a glimmer of hope for the nation's real estate market to recover. 

7 Comments:

At 7/16/2011 8:53 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

Southern California home sales last month shot up MORE THAN USUAL from May to the highest level for any month since JUNE 2010, when the market got its last big boost from homebuyer tax credits....

Notice the tortured language. What does MORE THAN USUAL MEAN? And since when is a one year high a big deal, particularly when you see an increase that trails inflation?

...The median price paid for all new and resale Southland houses and condos purchased last month was $285,000. That was up 1.8 percent from $280,000 in May and the highest since $290,000 last December, but still down 5.0 percent from $300,000 in June 2010.

Still down from June 2010? So this is really nothing to write home about. Instead of trying to torture the language to paint a false picture we should be concentrating on areas where the trend is very clear. Gold has gained more than 30% during the same period. Silver has gone up by more than 110%. They have clearly shown to be in a secular bull market trend but have been ignored while the 'optimists' are trying to downplay the collapse in the real economy and are still trying to revive the failed housing market in the hope that if they wish hard enough reality will get better.

I am sorry Mark but for a bright buy you have missed what is really going on. When are you going to look at the bigger picture and stop letting your natural optimism get in the way?

 
At 7/16/2011 8:53 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area last month was $377,750, up 1.5 percent from May but down 7.9 percent from $410,000 in June 2010.

Is this a positive or a negative?

 
At 7/16/2011 8:58 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

"More than usual" means:

Southern California home sales in June shot up more than usual from May (11.6% vs. 6.2% historical average) to the highest level for any month since June 2010.

 
At 7/16/2011 2:56 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

It is a patchy market in SoCal, though houses still sell for good money.

The Fed is doing what the central banker in japan did--take th pedal off the metal.

When at zero-bound (where we are), then you gotta go to QE and lot's of it. Plus stop paying interest on reserves, and tell the market that you are targeting nominal GDP growth of 6 percent.

The Fed is instead equivocating, and complete fools like Dallas Fed President Fisher are blubbering about inflation.

The core CPI for the last 12 months is up 1.6 percent. We are supposed to shiver in our boots at 1.6 percent inflation, by a measure that probably overstates inflation?

The Japan model has failed for 20 years, even as the yen has doubled in exchange value. That is not a rodd we want to go down--although it seems we are.

 
At 7/16/2011 5:37 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

It is a patchy market in SoCal, though houses still sell for good money.

Actually, house prices have imploded when measured in good money. The only reason why the picture looks somewhat acceptable is because you are looking at nominal pricing in a falling currency.

The Fed is doing what the central banker in japan did--take th pedal off the metal.

That is not what the evidence shows. The Bernank has been running the printing presses as fast as he could and has been injecting liquidity into the system by buying government debt as well as worthless bank-held paper. It has not worked and the real economy is in a state of collapse.

When at zero-bound (where we are), then you gotta go to QE and lot's of it. Plus stop paying interest on reserves, and tell the market that you are targeting nominal GDP growth of 6 percent.

The problem is that you will get a real decline in GDP. Loose money policies do not work. Just ask Japan, which built bridges to nowhere and has paved over as much of the country as it could in order to 'stimulate' the economy.

The Fed is instead equivocating, and complete fools like Dallas Fed President Fisher are blubbering about inflation.

Inflation is running at 9-10%. Gold is up by 30% over the past year and silver is up by more than 110%. That is after the government hiked margins four times in a row for silver and lowered margins for stocks and bonds.

The core CPI for the last 12 months is up 1.6 percent. We are supposed to shiver in our boots at 1.6 percent inflation, by a measure that probably overstates inflation?

As usual, you are not looking at the real world. For the average American the price of food, fuel, insurance, tuition, healthcare, etc., has been moving up by around 10%.

The Japan model has failed for 20 years, even as the yen has doubled in exchange value. That is not a rodd we want to go down--although it seems we are.

As usual you demonstrate that you are incapable of seeing the real world as it is. Instead of ignoring inflation you need to get ahead of it. Short bonds and fiat currencies. Buy gold and silver.

 
At 7/17/2011 10:50 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

the web 2.0 ipo cycle is going to drive bay area real estate wild.

it's already happening in some sf neighborhoods that are back to $1300-1400/ft2.

 
At 7/17/2011 11:15 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

the web 2.0 ipo cycle is going to drive bay area real estate wild.

it's already happening in some sf neighborhoods that are back to $1300-1400/ft2.


That may be true. The area that I live in has not had much of a pull-back and is still hovering near all time nominal highs but that does not mean that prices will be stable or that overall Canada does not have a real estate bubble that has to be popped. I suggest that the same is true of many areas in the US that never suffered much of a pull-back or have recovered nicely during the latest liquidity injections.

 

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