Thursday, July 07, 2011

ADP Report: Econ. Recovery Finds New Traction


"Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector rose 157,000 from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report released today (see chart above).  Today’s ADP National Employment Report estimates employment in the service-providing sector rose by 130,000 in June, nearly three times faster than in May, marking 18 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 27,000 in June, more than reversing the decline of 10,000 in May. Manufacturing employment rose 24,000 in June, which has seen growth in seven of the past eight months.

These figures are above the consensus forecast for today’s report and for Friday’s jobs number from the BLS. Payroll employment growth at this pace usually implies a steady unemployment rate, perhaps even a modest decline. June’s figures suggest that the economic recovery, which slipped in the spring, might have found new traction in early summer."

Other highlights include: 

1. June marks the 17th consecutive month of overall ADP employment gains, starting in February of last year (see chart above). 

2. Almost one million (984,000) private-sector jobs have been added so far this year, including 116,000 new manufacturing jobs.   
3. Over the last 12 months, private employment has increased by almost 1.6 million jobs (1,557,000) including 148,000 new manufacturing jobs.  

4. Private-sector employment at 108,677,000 is the highest level in more than two years, since April of 2009. 

15 Comments:

At 7/07/2011 10:46 AM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

From the ADP National Employment Report:

"Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, increased by
10,000, while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 59,000. Employment for small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50workers, rose 88,000 in June."


Medium and small-sized businesses accounted for 97% of all new private sector jobs in the U.S., according to the ADP survey!

Did large firms hire more employees? I would guess yes, but in foreign markets. Let's lower corp. tax rates, to bring large firm capital back to the U.S. that create more U.S. jobs within those firms.

 
At 7/07/2011 11:12 AM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Growth is better than contraction, but we are down 7 million jobs from pre-recession levels.

We need much stronger job growth.

Bernanke should pour it on.

 
At 7/07/2011 11:26 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

this is paltry job growth and even this number is still down from the beginning of the year.

the engine of job growth in recent decades has been the small business.

regulatory encroachment and uncertainty favors big firms and freezes small ones.

QE has been an abysmal failure. we lost jobs under qe1, gained then in the break between it and qe2, then saw unemployment rise again under qe2.

far from pouring it on, bernanke needs to stop disrupting the economy and spurring profitless inflation.

he's half the problem. DC is the other. loose money cannot drive sustained real growth and regulation destroys it.

sometimes you just need time to heal by natural processes. having a pile of would be doctors poking and prodding you and prescribing charlatanical elixirs just makes you worse.

 
At 7/07/2011 12:21 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Trying to get out of recession through tight money is like applying leeches to a patient suffering from anemia.

 
At 7/07/2011 12:23 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

Japan has been letting the natural processes work for 20 years...and they have had falling asset values for 20 years, and been eclipsed by every advanced nation in terms of growth.

Tight money is a demonstrated failure.

 
At 7/07/2011 1:14 PM, Blogger James Fraasch said...

Tight money in Japan?
Since when?

Keynesian clowns, the lot of them.

 
At 7/07/2011 1:19 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

benji-

there has been nothing like tight money.

in fact, the loose money has raised interest rates (they fell in between). that's what happens when most of your creditors are foreign.

you cannot create real growth through the inflation of repeated bubbles.

and, as ever, you understanding of japan is just nonsense.

http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/workshops/macro/macropaper04/miyao.pdf

here's the math.

there was no causal relationship between money supply growth and economic growth.

the yen was strong during periods of higher growth and weak during weak ones.

you have this all completely backwards.

 
At 7/07/2011 6:54 PM, Blogger Benjamin said...

James-

As Milton Friedman said, "Low interest rates are a sign of tight money."

Japan has had zilch interest rates forever.

But the yen has appreciated mightily in last 20 years--ergo tight money. See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_yen

The yen traded as high as 150/dollar in 1990, and now is down in the 80s. You don't get appreciation by loose money.

But the Japan economy is wrecked.

BTW, I believe in balanced federal budgets, for Japan and the USA.

 
At 7/07/2011 8:41 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

We need much stronger job growth.

Bernanke should pour it on.


Still beating this dead horse? I am afraid that is exactly what Bernanke will do. But the outcome will not be what you expect.

 
At 7/07/2011 8:42 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

Japan has been letting the natural processes work for 20 years...and they have had falling asset values for 20 years, and been eclipsed by every advanced nation in terms of growth.

Tight money is a demonstrated failure.


Actually, Japan destroyed its finances by spending borrowed money on wasteful infrastructure projects and stimulus. That is exactly why it is in such big trouble today with little hope of getting out.

 
At 7/07/2011 8:43 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

benji-

the yen is right where it was in 1995.

you trot this same lie out over and over.

since 2008, the yen has not rallied, the dollar has dropped.

measured vs the swiss franc, the yen has not done anything but range trade for a decade and has weakened over 50% since 2000.

you are just talking nonsense.

you have also, as ever, misunderstood freidman. all he is pointing out is that causality can work both ways and the "natural" rates that emerge and that rates are low when demand for money is low and real rates (fischer effect) are low when inflationary expectations are low.

that quote has ZERO to do with the targeted rates and money supply of modern central banks in which there is a deliberately set rate and money supply, not a naturally emergent one. if the CB is setting a rate, all this goes out the window. the rate is a given variable, not a dependent one.

sorry pal, but there is just no way you have a real econ degree. you'd have at least the rudiments of understanding if you did, not this miasma of misunderstandings, false relationships, and misquotes.

 
At 7/07/2011 8:46 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

"That is exactly why it is in such big trouble today with little hope of getting out."

well, that and their utter demographic collapse.

when your workforce and population shrink every year and your % of population that are retirees spikes, GDP growth becomes awfully difficult.

 
At 7/07/2011 8:52 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

As Milton Friedman said, "Low interest rates are a sign of tight money."

LOL

Why not raise interest rates to 30%, to pick a number? Would that be 'loose' enough for you?

Well Bennie, given your inability to understand let me put it in context for you. Friedman said that tight money would create an economic contraction, which would push interest rates down. But when was the contraction-creating money supply tightened by the Fed?

http://www.commutefaster.com/MoneySupply1-30-2009.png

http://static.safehaven.com/authors/mish/21110_a.png

 
At 7/08/2011 5:45 AM, Blogger cluemeister said...

And just about the time the sputtering economy shows blips of life, Obama has a press conference telling business owners that higher taxes and reduced depreciation schedules are coming their way.

I can't wait for America to take the car keys away from this socialist simpleton.

 
At 7/08/2011 7:51 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

"U.S. employers added 18,000 workers in June, the fewest in nine months, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed, indicating a struggling labor market.

The increase in payrolls followed a 25,000 gain that was less than half the rise initially estimated, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey called for a June gain of 105,000. The unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent, the highest level this year. Hiring by companies, which excludes government agencies, was the weakest since May 2010. "

well, so much for that "adp traction"...

 

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