CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Sunday, May 29, 2011
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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4 Comments:
If I go back on this web site it appears to me that the leading economic indicators of months ago pointed to economic acceleration today that is not happening. Instead we have deceleration in several areas such as:
Durable goods orders were down 3.6% versus the 0.6% consensus.
Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimates came in at 1.8% versus consensus of 2%.
Initial weekly jobless claims climbed to 424,000 versus a consensus of 400,000.
The leading economic indicators were down 0.3% versus the consensus of 0.0%.
Philly Federal Reserve Bank index for May was only 3.9 versus a 15 consensus.
Existing home sales were 5.05 million versus estimates of 5.23 million.
Housing starts were 523,000 versus 585,000 estimates.
NY Empire manufacturing index registered 11.9 versus a consensus of 18.
Personal income and personal spending both came in under the consensus by 0.1%.
US leading economic indicators do not seem to be working at least on the upside.
But then I take comfort that I am an idiot as many here have pointed out.
From the Conference Board:
"The Conference Board CEI for Mexico increased again in March, with industrial production and employment contributing positively to the index."
The manufacturing wage disparity between Mexico and China is very slight. Mexico's wages are only 14% higher than China and narrowing.
Increasing oil revenue (reserves falling), manufacturing gains and solid employment gains are very positive.
The NAFTA nations could align for very strong economic growth in the next decade. A simplistic sketch might be: Mexico manufactures; U.S. creates and finances; Canada supplies natural resources.
The Wilshire's 6 March 2009 Quantum Valuation Fractal Growth before the 31 May 2010 Crash http://www.economicfractalist.com/
Does the macroeconomy operate and grow and decay by precise and simple time ordered mathematical patterns which confer on the operatings of the (macroeconomic)system the qualities of a hard science? http://www.economicfractalist.com/
The US Wilshire is the the proxy for the world equity market.
There are three interlocking daily fractal growth patterns dating from 6 March 2009 that make up a x/2.5x/2x :: 5/13/10 month 3 phase growth pattern which ended on Friday 27 May 2010.
This x/2.5x/2x growth pattern was retrospectively identified in the main page of The Economic Fractalist in 2005 http://www.economicfractalist.com/
The Wilshire's March 2009 5/13/10 :: x/2.5x/2x month growth completes a 34 quarter growth period of a 17/34/34 :: x/2x/2x growth pattern dating from 1990 which collectively using the same terminology in that main page http://www.economicfractalist.com/ represents a second fractal of a 34 quarter base fractal beginning in 1982 and ending in 1990. 1982 was the era of the last responsible Central Banker who crushed inflation with 18 % treasuries. Treasuries have ever since been in a growth expansion and now have temporarily negative returns as compared with ongoing inflation.
The 1982 and 1990 34 and 17/34/34 quarterly fractals are part of longer term fractal patterns dating back to the US constitution and even further back to the late 17th century British hegemony. For the US the first fractal base was formed from 1789 to 1858. The second fractal was formed by two subfractals 1858 to 1932 and 1932 to present.
From the Wilshire's 6 March 2009 low there are 3 interlocking fractal patterns:
Number one: 88/221 days :: x/2.5x with the nonlinear flash crash on 6 May 2010 or day 208 conforming to the Main Page http://www.economicfractalist.com/ 2x to 2.5x terminal second fractal time area for the 88 day base. (2 of the 221 trading days were half trading days making the 221 nodal low exactly 2.5x of the 88 day base.)
Number two: a transitional fractal starting on the 6 May 2010 flash crash with nodal lows and highs of 14/27/24/20 days. Using the fractal's secondary lows this becomes a very ideal x/2.5x/2x/1.6x (mainpage: http://www.economicfractalist.com/) 12/30/24/19 day three phase growth and one phase decay pattern. The 3rd and 4th fractal of the perfect fractal form a 42 day base for the next growth sequence.
Number three: 42/105/84 days :: x/2.5x/2x growth fractal (Main page) ending on 27 May 2011.
What is the probability that these quantum time relationships are occurring by chance alone?
"What is the probability that these quantum time relationships are occurring by chance alone?"
Oh, probably about 100%.
Here's the important question: Are you making money by observing these patterns?
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