"A Testament to the Resilience of Markets": World Stock Market Capitalization Doubles in Two Years
The Paris-based World Federation of Exchanges, an association of 52 regulated stock market exchanges around the world, recently released data on the world stock market capitalization, which increased to $57.8 trillion in March. That was a 39-month high for world equity values and the highest level since December 2007 when the U.S. recession started. Compared to the cyclical low of $26.6 trillion two years ago in February 2009, the total world stock market capitalization has more than doubled to the current level of almost $58 trillion. From the all-time high of $63 trillion in October 2007, the value of world equity markets is currently about 8% below that pre-crisis peak, or about $5 trillion in dollars.
See a related post here from Scott Grannis, "The $29 Trillion Recovery," where he comments:
"It is a testament to the resilience of markets, risk-takers, and workers that the global market economy has not collapsed under the weight of the fiscal and monetary policy errors that contributed to this extraordinary volatility. There are still plenty of problems left to deal with, but the recovery to date inspires hope that the problems can be overcome with time."
54 Comments:
No surprise. If you flood the world with liquidity the newly created cash will have to go somewhere.
I just hope the bla-bla about austerity and inflation is ignored, central banks keep printing money. Lot of boomtimes ahead--a 20 year bull market needs to be accommodated by lots of money.
Or, we can do a Japan. I prefer a long bull market.
Meanwhile, The Trump is looming larger and larger.
Donald Trump »
ABC News
GOP insiders embrace Trump's presidential bid
msnbc.com - Charles Babington - 45 minutes ago
AP
Trump, whose presidential flirtations have been coupled with television omnipresence in recent months, has only taken a tough view of the most recent resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue within the last year.
Trump donated to Harry Reid, Charlie Rangel, and Rahm Emmanuel. Go back 15 minutes and he's a Democrat in favor of a wealth tax.
What a surprise that Benji is now on the bandwagon of another pop culture celebrity candidate.
The historically slow U.S. economic recovery continues. The first estimate of Q1 2011 real GDP growth, to be reported next week, is expected to be less than 2%.
Yet, U.S. corporations are performing well in the global economy:
S&P 500 earnings look rosy on 2011 overseas sales
Dec 25, 2010
"S&P 500 foreign sales and overseas pre-tax income have risen sharply over the last decade.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said emerging markets will account for 80 percent of global growth in 2011.
Standard & Poor's 500 companies are expected to earn a record $95.98 per share in 2011, based on Thomson Reuters data. That would exceed the 2006 per-share record of $88.12.
The U.S. economy is expected to register gross domestic product growth of 2.7 percent in 2011, according to Reuters data.
Global GDP growth for 2011 is forecast at 4.8 percent and emerging and developing economies at 6.4 percent, according to the latest International Monetary Fund figures published in October."
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Paul-
Donald Trump has actually run businesses--he is not a lawyer, or community activist, etc.
He has reduced payroill when necessary. Do more with less; do not solve probems by spending more money, but rather by spending less money.
In the private sector, when times are tough, you cut employment. That's what the federal governemnt has to do--cut employment.
Look at these swollen federal payrolls, and remember pensions are attached:
Defense: 3,000,000
Veterans Affairs 235,000
Homeland Security 208,000
Treasury 115,000
Justice 112,000
Energy 109,000
USDA 109,000
We also have
HUD 10,000
Labor 17,000
HHS 67,000
I bet you could cut 35 percent of employment acrooss the board, and hit nothing but fat, ossified lard and coprolite.
We need a whack job like Trump to think like that, to have the "guts for cuts."
Besides, it ain't me, it is R-Party leadership that is waring up to Trump.
I hope Trump runs, wins, and starts whacking away at federal employment with an large axe. Hell, I hope he uses a chain saw.
From the 2009 World Federation of Exchanges Annual Report:
"Other execution venues also offering dark trading in so-called “dark pools,” but their trading and clients’ positions are not visiable for surveillance purposes.
Regulators have no way to evaluate the risks which may be inherent in the combined on-exchange/off-exchange dark pool activities, nor what the effects they might have on the visible markets."
The reasons for optimism in world markets are many and Prof. Perry, as well as Mr. Grannis, should surely be appreciated for providing us confirmation. But Dark Pools could increasingly disrupt and undermine worthy optimism.
Liquidity is very important for markets, and the Fed has imparted a lot for the world. But, when vast dark pools withdraw liquidity in markets, at hyper speeds, then we have flash events that shake optimsism and confidence. Transparent and open markets, along with liquidity, surely underpin capitilism, and not the increasing dark pools of capital hidden from markets.
Buddy-
I congratulate you. You are creating a new genre with your latest post--something like science financial fiction.
I like it--dark pools of capital sapping the life out of aboveground capitalism--and probably to sinister ends!
Seriously, I agree with you. Why invest if the next Long-Term Capital Management or AIG is just going to nuke the market without warning.
The globe badly needs scientific innovation, engineering innovation, agricultural innovation, and business innovation.
We do not need a bunch of punks on Wall Steet innovating with trillions of borrowed money.
When they bet wrong, they walk away--and we get get nuked.
Paul-
Trump is leading in polls. When will you get on the Trump team?
"Potential presidential candidate Donald Trump, at or near the top of some recent polls of Republican contenders, said he might release his tax returns when President Barack Obama produces a birth certificate."
I see that half of Iowan R-Partiers think Oabam has no US birth certificate.
How about you Paul? Is Obama a foreigner?
Go Trump!!!
Wall Street has created enormous wealth in the U.S. and captured massive wealth in the global economy.
Wall Street is capitalism at its best.
Unfortunately, the government creates policies that Wall Street takes advantage of, like taking candy away from a baby, and when the government realizes it lost, it restricts Wall Street with regulations.
Dark Pools and "financial fiction genre":
Dark Pool exchange rules may not arrive in 2011. Was the May 11, 2010 Flash Crash. a one-off event or a whole new genre of financial stress?
Benji,
You're reliving your euphoria of '08, this time with another buffoon. Trump said the Ryan plan is "too extreme" so what evidence do you have that he would do anything about the federal payrolls you've posted here about 85 times now?
That birther issue is amusing, but is emblematic of his cartoonish candidacy. Here's a guy who says he's going to slap a 25% tarriff on the Chinese. He says he's going to seize Iraq's oil as part of the spoils of war. He's a clown.
Paul-
I want President Trump to look at these tax-eating parasites on our payrolls, and tell about one-third of them, "You are fired!"
Look at these swollen federal payrolls, full of lard-butted tax-snufflers.
Defense: 3,000,000
Veterans Affairs 235,000
Homeland Security 208,000
Treasury 115,000
Justice 112,000
Energy 109,000
USDA 109,000
We also have
HUD 10,000
Labor 17,000
HHS 67,000
You are fired!!
Go Trump.
He's got my vote.
"What a surprise that Benji is now on the bandwagon of another pop culture celebrity candidate."
I think it's the hair.
I wish I had hair. Maybe that is it.
Look at these swollen federal payrolls, and remember pensions are attached. I want Trump to look at thse parasites and say, "You Are So Fired!!!"
Federal payrolls:
Defense: 3,000,000
Veterans Affairs 235,000
Homeland Security 208,000
Treasury 115,000
Justice 112,000
Energy 109,000
USDA 109,000
We also have
HUD 10,000
Labor 17,000
HHS 67,000
Fire one-third of them, Mr. Trump, and you get my vote!!!!!
"In the private sector, when times are tough, you cut employment."
That's because there are incentives in the private sector, except for some well known exceptions, that include severe penalties for failure. They are missing from government. There's no reason to believe Trump would perform better than a community organizer once those incentives are removed.
In fact, his idiotic blathering lately, which shows neither business sense not economic reality, convinces me otherwise.
Ron H,
"In fact, his idiotic blathering lately, which shows neither business sense not economic reality, convinces me otherwise."
Wait, you're talkng about Trump, not Benji, right?
"Paul, you keep saying Trump is an idiot. Yet he is the R-Party-GOP favorite. Are you saying the R-Party is full of idiots?"
He's more of a blowhard, and not really versed on the issues. I don't think I said he was an idiot. You, yeah.
He's getting traction now because a) people like the way he's out there attacking Obama the way they wish others would, and b) they haven't learned about his past political statements/donations/ideas.
He will fade. But you're in love again, Benji. Congratulations.
"Paul, you keep saying Trump is an idiot. Yet he is the R-Party-GOP favorite. Are you saying the R-Party is full of idiots?"
No, that's ME that keeps saying Trump is an idiot (although I think Paul agrees). And yes, both the R & D parties are full of idiots. I don't know why you keep trying to separate them on ideological grounds. There's just not much difference.
The lame "budget cuts" agreed on should convince you. I might as well come home with a new car and brag that after exhaustive haggling all afternoon I had managed to slash $2 off the sticker price.
"Wait, you're talkng about Trump, not Benji, right?"
Oh ya, sorry, I didn't specify. I guess it could be either.
ROn H,
"The lame "budget cuts" agreed on should convince you. I might as well come home with a new car and brag that after exhaustive haggling all afternoon I had managed to slash $2 off the sticker price."
I agree the GOP leadership was stupid to tout it as a victory. However, at least they attempted to cut spending, but ran into Obama's brick wall in the Senate.
Ron H-
Your beloved, Paul, is deeply enamored of the GOP, with a long stiffie to the moon. Yet Trump may become the GOP presidential candidate.
It all depends on talk radio. If the talk radio guys love The Donald, then he is in as GOP candidate.
Dont be too sure Trump won't take one-third of the below parasites and fire them. He comes from the private-sector where parasites actually get fired.
Remember, you are paying about 1/3 your income largely in part so these people below can enjoy nice salaries and civilian and miltary pensions.
Look at these swollen federal payrolls, and remember pensions are attached:
Defense: 3,000,000
Veterans Affairs 235,000
Homeland Security 208,000
Treasury 115,000
Justice 112,000
Energy 109,000
USDA 109,000
We also have
HUD 10,000
Labor 17,000
HHS 67,000
I hope Donald Trump says "You are so fired!!!!!" to above tax-eaters, and puts them to work in the prvate-sector, where they can pay taxes and reduce theoverall load.
You are fired!!!!
Oh, what sweet words those would be.
Benji,
I know you are feeling that old endorphin rush like it was '08 again,
but once again, your new lover Trump already said Ryan's moderate budget proposal is too extreme.
"I hope Donald Trump says "You are so fired!!!!!"
Ah, "hope." Sounds familiar. I remember millions of fools voting on that state of mind, with just as much evidence behind it, not too long ago.
Benji,
Would you do me a favor and post that federal payroll information for the 5th time in this thread? I also missed it the first 147 times you posted it in the past couple days
Paul-
Just trying to show you where the real fat is. Look at those numbers, boy. Those people are living off of you.
The sad thing is, those parasites form a huge voting block.
Al Gore beat George Bush jr, by only 400,000 votes in 2000 (he lost in the Supreme Court-tained Electroal College rhubarb).
So the 3.5 million votes at Defense, VA, and Homeland Security can sway any election.
Truth is Paul, your paycheck or profits are theirs, one-third of it, before you get your cut. They will "allow" you to keep about two-thirds of your money.
And you won't vote for Trump
You are so fired!!!!!!
"Your beloved, Paul, is deeply enamored of the GOP, with a long stiffie to the moon. Yet Trump may become the GOP presidential candidate."
I don't know about his stiffie, but Paul is using the only viable platform available to him, even if it's not a perfect fit. He realizes the Libertarian party isn't likely to get enough votes to get the job done, so he is being practical. He wants to do all the things you SAY you would like done.
How could you vote for a "Deeply Flawed" candidate like trump? If he is the only choice, the principled action would be to not vote at all. Check with Lysander Spooner about that. Of course "deeply flawed" didn't stop you last time, did it?
"Look at these swollen federal payrolls, and remember pensions are attached:
Defense: 3,000,000
Veterans Affairs 235,000
Homeland Security 208,000
Treasury 115,000
Justice 112,000
Energy 109,000
USDA 109,000
We also have
HUD 10,000
Labor 17,000
HHS 67,000"
In the future you can save yourself a lot of typing or perhaps pasting by just referring to this list as "Swollen Federal Payroll". I'vr seen this from you so many times, I've printed it, & keep it taped to my monitor. So, in the future, when I see the title, I can just glance over at the list. It will make reading your comments faster & easier.
"I agree the GOP leadership was stupid to tout it as a victory. However, at least they attempted to cut spending, but ran into Obama's brick wall in the Senate."
I realize a lot of it is political posturing, but in my opinion, there should have been no agreement, no continuing resolution, and certainly no thought of raising the debt ceiling. The GOP does, afterall, control the purse strings at this time, if they only have the cojones to do so.
"Al Gore beat George Bush jr, by only 400,000 votes in 2000 (he lost in the Supreme Court-tained Electroal College rhubarb)."
As the Constitutional authority that you are, I'm sure you merely misspoke when you suggested that the SCOTUS decided the 2000 presidential election. As you are of course aware, their only involvement was in deciding issues, basically pissing contests, involving Florida recount procedures.
Had Gore not finally given up his lame efforts at obfuscation, he knew full well that without a clear majority of electoral votes, the issue would have been decided in the House of Representatives, which had a narrow Republican majority, leaving him no chance to win.
I'm sure you will refressh your fuzzy recall by re-reading the Twelfth Amendment to the Constitution right after you finish this.
Hanging chads, indeed.
Ron,
You're right on the GOP cojones, can't disagree there. There are a few points of light within the ranks, however. Our only hope is to get more of them in there.
Here's Trump on the socialist health care Benji endorsed yesterday even while criticizing Romney for implementing it: "We must have universal healthcare. Our objective [should be] … to find an equivalent of the single-payer plan that is affordable, well-administered, and provides freedom of choice."
He's now hop, skipping, and jumping away from that just like he is with his previous support for abortion, a wealth tax, and his political donations to the worst scum on the Democrat side of the aisle.
If this clown is the nominee, which I doubt he will be, I will probably do something I said I would never do and not vote for President.
What a surprise that Benji is now on the bandwagon of another pop culture celebrity candidate.
Hell, I would love to see Trump get lots of Republican support. It would finally show that the party is just as screwed up and intellectually bankrupt as the Democrats. Then Trump can brag about how he always meant to destroy the party. Keep in mind that as a person who managed to bankrupt a casino he would have little trouble following the path of GWB and Obama.
The U.S. economy is expected to register gross domestic product growth of 2.7 percent in 2011, according to Reuters data.
Global GDP growth for 2011 is forecast at 4.8 percent and emerging and developing economies at 6.4 percent, according to the latest International Monetary Fund figures published in October.
I do not trust any of the inflation numbers so real growth is probably going to be lower.
Donald Trump has actually run businesses--he is not a lawyer, or community activist, etc.
He bankrupted a CASINO. That tells you what you need to know. He made his money by selling his brand and by speculating in real estate. That does not translate well running a country, particularly when you are an arrogant illiterate who does not understand the Constitution, economics, or politics.
Benji,
You're reliving your euphoria of '08, this time with another buffoon. Trump said the Ryan plan is "too extreme" so what evidence do you have that he would do anything about the federal payrolls you've posted here about 85 times now?
As much as I like to take my shots and take Benji seriously at times he is clearly playing with you. There is no way that he is as stupid and as inconsistent as he appears.
Paul, you keep saying Trump is an idiot. Yet he is the R-Party-GOP favorite. Are you saying the R-Party is full of idiots?
Of course it is. They picked Bush and McCain and will settle on a big government statist again.
I don't know that I'd crow about these stock market bounces, given the historically unprecedented govt subsidies that helped push them up. The real test will be when the training wheels of govt assistance come off, ie the Fed sells its $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, FDIC guarantees go back to what they were 4 years ago, and Fannie and Freddie are finally dissolved. I wonder if we aren't entering another irrationally optimistic market, just like I was calling in late 2007.
As for Trump, he's a joke and is just a trial balloon, like Elizabeth Dole in '00. You don't put your best candidates up too early, or the media will rip them to pieces. I called McCain as the nominee in 2008 when he was down to 10% odds on Intrade going into the New Hampshire primary. This time around, it's going to be Rand Paul, Mitch Daniels, or Chris Christie. They're smart however, and won't poke their head up early only to get it bashed in, like that dummy Trump is doing now.
Sprewell says: "The real test will be when the training wheels of govt assistance come off, ie the Fed sells its $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities."
Fed's Balance Sheet
March 2011
"Didn't the Fed buy $1.25 trillion in mortgages in QE1? Yes, it did. But when people move, or sell homes, or refinance, they pay off mortgages, and the bonds backed by them disappear. Which is why the Fed's pile of mortgages is slowly melting. Last week's report shows that the Fed has $937 billion in MBS, down $113 billion from November, and down $191 billion from the peak in late June 2010.
The Fed last week announced it would auction off the $15.7 billion portfolio of securities in Maiden Lane II. The pile of MBS will continue to melt.
When it acquires assets, the Fed creates money. When it receives payment of cash for assets, such as bonds or loans, it takes the cash out of circulation. And each week, about one quarter of the stimulus created by expanding the balance sheet is counteracted by balance sheet shrinkage. The end result: QE2 is going to be more like QE 1.5.
Other components of the balance sheet had shrunk: Commercial paper on the Fed's books fell from $350 billion to $14 billion. The amount of term auction credit outstanding stood at $38.5 billion, down from $416 billion the year before. (As this data set shows, term auction peaked at $493 billion in March 2009 and disappeared entirely by April 7, 2010.)
This is not to say that the Fed's balance sheet isn't massive compared with where it was before the crisis. It is. And it's not to minimize the potential dangers that can build up in an economy when interest rates are left at zero for a long period of time. But the Fed isn't quite as loose as many people think. As is so often the case, the headline number only tells part of the story."
Not raise the debt ceiling?
Are you long on remnimbi?
Do you think the government should renege on contracts already issued?
Paul
"If this clown is the nominee, which I doubt he will be, I will probably do something I said I would never do and not vote for President. "
I can only imagine the Obama camp dancing with glee at the thought of Trump actually getting the nomination.
The real test will be when the training wheels of govt assistance come off, ie the Fed sells its $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, FDIC guarantees go back to what they were 4 years ago, and Fannie and Freddie are finally dissolved.
When can that happen? At the first sign of a liquidity reduction the markets will crash and the QE activities will resume. I don't think that anything meaningful happens until the system breaks and we have real hyperinflation.
I wonder if we aren't entering another irrationally optimistic market, just like I was calling in late 2007.
If you look at it in real terms, the bear market is still intact. This is just a bounce. How much higher it goes is anyone's guess but I think that it ends in misery as all bubbles do.
I called McCain as the nominee in 2008 when he was down to 10% odds on Intrade going into the New Hampshire primary.
McCain was an idiot and a very weak candidate. He had no principles to offer as an alternative to the chosen one. And Americans got what they deserved.
Do you think the government should renege on contracts already issued?
The math says that it must eventually. The only question is when. Does the government default on its outstanding loans? Does it default on paying the interest? Does it default by cutting SS and Medicare in very real terms. One way or another it has to break promises that it has made.
Peak, I'm actually not worried about the increase in reserves, unlike the gold bugs, as I think Bernanke is smart enough to keep that electronic money locked up. The problem is the massive subsidies to those markets, which essentially amounts to fiscal policy executed by the Fed. The article that you quote trumpets the securities that the Fed sold off, but it doesn't point out that the Fed simultaneously replaced those dollar for dollar, actually more, with shitty MBS's. Also, I didn't notice this before but apparently the horror that is Frank-Dodd made the raised FDIC limits permanent and retroactive.
Vange, McCain was the best major party candidate in decades. He was always a bit too bomb-happy and his grasp of economics was a bit suspect, but that's far better than the bozo the public gravitated to instead. Nobody with "principles" can ever be elected President, no chance in hell with the ones you have in mind, ie Ron Paul or whoever. As much as I like Ron Paul, he comes off as deranged when every question he answers, no matter what it is, somehow is routed to the Fed and loose money. No doubt you agree with him about that, but that's just ignorance.
Sprewell,
"This time around, it's going to be Rand Paul, Mitch Daniels, or Chris Christie."
I hope you're right, any of the 3 would be superb candidates. Christie is my favorite, but he keeps saying he's not running.
Vange, McCain was the best major party candidate in decades. He was always a bit too bomb-happy and his grasp of economics was a bit suspect, but that's far better than the bozo the public gravitated to instead.
His grasp of economics was insufficient to be president so that cast doubt on his ability to handle critical domestic issues. He was too bomb happy, which made him dangerous to lead in foreign policy matters. He lost because he was not a huge difference from Obama at a time when the voters were pissed off at Bush and the Republicans.
Nobody with "principles" can ever be elected President, no chance in hell with the ones you have in mind, ie Ron Paul or whoever. As much as I like Ron Paul, he comes off as deranged when every question he answers, no matter what it is, somehow is routed to the Fed and loose money. No doubt you agree with him about that, but that's just ignorance.
But that is the problem. As one who is ignorant of economics and monetary policy you are unwilling to accept that Ron Paul got it right.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6nnp_Yt7AM&feature=related
I might vote for Ron Paul. His son is turning out to be quite a woose, through.
I say go with Donald Trump.
He bankrupted a casino? So what? He is rolling the dice, the way a businessman should.
I will go with anyone who says they will shrink government.
The GOP will not do that.
"He bankrupted a casino? So what? He is rolling the dice, the way a businessman should."
In other words it's his to bankrupt if he wishes. Would you also say that about your country, if he were president?
Oh wait! You already said that with your vote last time. Never mind: I answered my own question.
You could be right, of course, it takes concerted effort to bankrupt a money machine like a casino. Trump had to work hard to do it. Maybe he's our man. He wouldn't be distracted by good judgement, that's for sure.
Ron H.
Trump is the best of the GOP at this time.
We need a whack-job outsider who will cut federal payrolls by one-third--or more.
The USDA, national defense, the Education departments--these swollen mountains of coprolite have to mowed down.
If Trumo mouths off but aoivd foreign entanglements and slashes federal debt--then I am for him.
The job is simple. It is wanting to get re-lelected that is the hard part.
See those 3.5 million dole-jockeys on your payroll eating your money at Defense, Homeland Security and the VA--they all vote.
Trump has to get there somehow--and then say "You are Fired!!!!!"
6 months into a Trump Presidency Benji will be saying he "held his nose" voting for Trump.
Paul, I think Christie is serious about not running, I think he knows it's too early for him and I doubt he wants to take on Obama. However, most candidates only say that as an excuse, the most ludicrous example being Hilary, who was disavowing a run up to the last moment, when everyone knew that was her original plan since leaving the White House.
I might vote for Ron Paul. His son is turning out to be quite a woose, through.
I say go with Donald Trump.
He bankrupted a casino? So what? He is rolling the dice, the way a businessman should.
I will go with anyone who says they will shrink government.
The GOP will not do that.
Now I know that you are playing and having fun with people because there is no way for anyone to be as much of a nut as you are clearly try to pass yourself as.
6 months into a Trump Presidency Benji will be saying he "held his nose" voting for Trump.
Benji is playing with you. He can't be as stupid as he seems because even idiots know when they keep posting contradictory statements as Benji has.
He is either playing with you guys or is the biggest nutjob around. Pick one.
"He is either playing with you guys or is the biggest nutjob around. Pick one."
I kind of thought it was both. Do I really have to choose?
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