Sunday, April 24, 2011

Obama Re-Election Odds Trending Down, But > 50%

Obama's re-election odds have fallen to 58% on Intrade.com, the lowest level since early January, and down from the nearly 65% peak around March 1 (see chart above, click to enlarge). 

4 Comments:

At 4/25/2011 1:47 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

As the country becomes more like California, the working or middle class will suffer the most.

They'll work harder and longer for fewer and smaller assets and goods.

The rich will find ways to stay rich, or become richer, e.g. raising prices or hiring lawyers to pay little in taxes.

Like California, the country's production and finance will be driven away to other countries.

"Americanism" will continue to spread throughout the world, much like the U.S. military, and although the U.S. will remain the world's superpower, most of the domestic population, i.e. the middle and lower classes, will become poorer.

 
At 4/25/2011 3:39 AM, Blogger juandos said...

Well Jonah Goldberg notes: He [Obama] demonized George W. Bush as an evil fool, but Obama has been forced to adopt many of the very policies he derided as evil and foolish. The "change" candidate is now the "more of the same" guy...

How is this going to play out for people who bought into the 'hope & change' song and dance that was the Obama campaign?

 
At 4/25/2011 10:14 AM, Blogger rjs said...

juandos: "How is this going to play out for people who bought into the 'hope & change' song and dance that was the Obama campaign?"

we're all staying home...

 
At 4/25/2011 11:00 AM, Blogger Bobby Caygeon said...

He is done, assuming a viable candidate from the R's (that is a big assumptions I know but someone like Romney - yuck - would win easily). He will continue to abdicate his leadership responsibilities over the next 18 months to campaign, he will not pick up any meaningful unemployment number gains, and the risk that oil/inflation pressure to the consumer (ie, the electorate) will completely neuter any chance of a meaningful recovery from this point forward is growing daily.

He got 53% of the vote with:

a. a pure electoral hatred of the side that brought "W" and the corresponding activist action (perfect storm).
b. a completely in the tank media.
c. 98% of the black vote.
d. a majority of the independent vote.
e. lying his way through everything.
f. an establishment/old R candidate
who capitulated and ran an ineffective and weak campaign.
g. the once in a lifetime "white guilt" free ability to vote a black man into the Presidency.

That got him 53% of the vote. The perfect storm got him 53%. Directionally, and on a relative basis, not one of those points will provide the same up-tick to him as it did last year.

 

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