Intrade Predicted 11 out 12 Oscars in 2010-11
For the last two years, I've reported the Intrade odds for the leading contracts to win the top six Academy Awards (2010 and 2011), as of the day of the awards, and here is a summary of the odds and results:
Best Picture:
2009: Hurt Locker (53%) YES
2010: The Kings Speech (79.7%) YES
Best Actor:
2009: Jeff Bridges (92%) YES
2010: Colin Firth (94.1%) YES
Best Actress:
2009: Sandra Bullock (68%) YES
2010: Natalie Portman (89.9%) YES
2009: Sandra Bullock (68%) YES
2010: Natalie Portman (89.9%) YES
Best Support Actor:
2009: Christoph Waltz (93.5%) YES
2010: Christian Bale (88.9%) YES
Supporting Actress:
2009: Mo'Nique (86%) YES
2010: Mellisa Leo (64.9%) YES
Best Director:
2009: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (85%) YES
2010: David Fincher, The Social Network (63.5%) NO
Bottom Line: In 11 out of 12 cases, the Intrade contracts correctly predicted the Oscar winners.
2 Comments:
If Toy Story 3 had won for Best Picture, then my return would have been 500%! Oh well, on to the next speculation.
That's all well and good to publish predictions that worked, even though you cherry-picked the winners, but to imply that prediction markets "work" is misleading.
I reviewed this year's Academy Awards predictions on HSX and Inkling. I found that all of the markets where the front-runner had at least a 70% likelihood of winning, the market correctly picked the winner. Note that the markets would have been just as accurate had the front-runners lost!
I counted seven upsets, some of them major upsets. I also identified another possible upset. I say possible, because the HSX market had The Social Network as the favourite for Best Direction, but the Inkling market had it tied with The King's Speech.
That brings up another issue. Which market do you believe, when the predictions differ? If we can't answer that question, we shouldn't be relying on prediction markets.
There are lots of other reasons not to rely on prediction markets like these ones. I will be addressing these on my blog soon.
For further information about the Oscar prediction markets, please see my blog entry:
http://torontopm.wordpress.com/2011/02/28/the-oscars-2011-the-good-the-bad-the-ugly/
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