CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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29 Comments:
Global boom times coming baby.
Dow surged way over 12k today, and this bull market will have more legs than a centipede.
In five years the Dow goes to 18k, easy. Profits are surging. A rising tide lifts all boats, including banks and governments.
We will see a balanced federal budget in Obama's second term.
that chart about the long term share of world GDP is very interesting.
you can see how china and india just totally missed the industrial revolution and lost their prominence. people forget that china used to be a bigger economy that europe.
benji-
there has not been a balanced US budget since eisenhower (if you use GAAP accounting, not the cash accounting nonsense the government uses and which the SEC would jail you for if you tried to use privately).
i will right now bet you anything that you like that there will not be a GAAP balanced budget under obama.
no way jose.
it won't even be close.
Morgan-
Maybe so. We need to fix Social Security with a later retirement age and de-ink payouts from the CPI.
That, and print money until the cows come home. We can boom, and deleverage through inflation.
A big if is the if we can stop the heavy subsidy of rural America and the military-Congressional-VA-foreign policy complex, that sucks $1 trillion annually out of the productive, wealth- and job-screating sector.
We fix Social Secutiy, beat the crap out of the rural-military complex, and we balance our budget easily.
First, you got to get those frauds, fakes and poltroons in the R-Party out of office. You read the WSJ editorial on Gingrich yesterday? Totally exposed him a a fake.
No, Obama is not much better....but he can and probably will balance the budget in boom times, just like Clinton did....
morganovich,
You seem like an intelligent guy, don't get sucked into "Benji's" world.
What's with the use of % or PCT. It's an index!
"That, and print money until the cows come home. We can boom, and deleverage through inflation. "
SS and medi are pegged to CPI. your view that you can print out from under them is inconsistent with your belief that CPI understates inflation.
printing that sort of money will also do more harm than good. not only will it punish all the savers, destroying wealth and savings rates and amplifying the retirement problem while making the US as a whole much poorer, but it will also spike US interest rates, widening our deficit.
look at the effect that a TINY little dose of this program had on the us bond market. with this many foreign borrowers, you cannot close a deficit by printing money.
From The CIA Factbook:
The Indian national anthem was written by the Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tabore -- who also wrote the Bengladeshi national anthem.
The Chinese national anthem was originally the theme song to the 1935 Chinese movie "Sons and Daughters In A Time of Storm". It was banned for a time during the Cultural Revolution.
"My prediction is that politicians will eventually be tempted to resolve the [fiscal] crisis the way irresponsible governments usually do: by printing money, both to pay current bills and to inflate away debt. And as that temptation becomes obvious, interest rates will soar." -- Paul Krugman
Even "Benji's" hero thinks that printing money is a bad idea.
che-
lol.
i'm trying to suck benji into the real world.
i realize it's likely Sisyphean, but if my rebuttals of his nonsense help keep a few others from sliding into the benjiverse, then perhaps that does some good. that bubble baby monetary Keynesian viewpoint is so destructive that we really do need to make sure it doesn't spread.
Benji,
"First, you got to get those frauds, fakes and poltroons in the R-Party out of office."
Benji is deleveraged from the real world. The GOP is proposing actual cuts to the budget while his boyfriend is promising to win the future with choo choo trains and solar panels.
More Benji...
"You read the WSJ editorial on Gingrich yesterday? Totally exposed him a a fake."
Uh, Gingrich hasn't been in office for over a decade. Meanwhile, Benji's boyfriend Barack was one of the biggest Big Ag whores in the Senate. He was even flying around on ADM jets during '08 campaign. But you'll never hear the word "fake" cross Benji's lips when it comes to his one true love.
Here are a few snippets from that WSJ editorial that Benji's eyes must have glazed right over:
"The real fight is between the House Republicans now trying to rationalize the federal fisc and the kind of corporate welfare that President Obama advanced in his State of the Union."
and...
"Now Republicans have another chance to reform government, and a limited window of opportunity in which to do it. The temptation will be to allow their first principles to be as elastic as many voters suspect they are, especially as Mr. Obama appropriates the language of "investments" and "incentives" to transfer capital to politically favored companies."
and...
"So along comes Mr. Gingrich to offer his support for Mr. Obama's brand of green-energy welfare, undermining House Republicans in the process. "
Who is the fake, Benji?
"A big if is the if we can stop the heavy subsidy of rural America "
The so-called "farm income stabilization" accounts for about $20 billion, or 0.3% of total government spending. Hardly the big winner.
"just like Clinton did...."
You mean the Republican congress?
This comment has been removed by the author.
17 Facts About China That Will Blow Your Mind
"Chinese GDP could overtake the U.S. in less than 15 years."
China could create even more massive environmental damage, continue to treat its workers as expendable, export about half of its economy (while blocking imports), and build many more empty buildings, houses, and cities to surpass U.S. GDP within 15 years.
China will continue to be a poor country over the next 15 years, while the U.S. continues to reap the benefits of hard working Chinese, who will be "spent" by the time its one-child policy causes a huge retired class living in the world's biggest garbage heap.
i will right now bet you anything that you like that there will not be a GAAP balanced budget under obama.
There is no chance to make the math work out. It is more likely that the USD will collapse or the US will default then there is that Obama will run a balanced budget.
That, and print money until the cows come home. We can boom, and deleverage through inflation.
When in history has inflation ever been the solution to a crisis?
i realize it's likely Sisyphean, but if my rebuttals of his nonsense help keep a few others from sliding into the benjiverse, then perhaps that does some good. that bubble baby monetary Keynesian viewpoint is so destructive that we really do need to make sure it doesn't spread.
But it will spread because many people want to believe in the Keynesian nonsense. The best thing to do is to take advantage of them and get rich even as they become poorer. After all, money should flow to those that understand and respect it, not idiots who believe in inflation as a solution.
Actually QE is a Milton Friedman idea. John Taylor raved about the positive effects of QE on japan 2003-6. QE uued to be a conservative monetarists idea.
Hey, I am the one who wants to cut the federal budget to 16 percent of GDP, by thrashing Commerce, Labor, HUD, USDA and DoD.
Check out US Tax Foundation stats for which states get what from the feds. You will be shocked, Rural red states are all subsidized, and heavily. The large urban states pay more in than they get out.
Kentucky gets $1.50 back for every $1 they send to DC. It is a state saturated in federal lard--and where Rand Paul comes from. What a laugh that is.
Rural America is the most mollycoddled, enfeebled, subsidized, weakling region on earth--it would blow away without federal subsidies, levied on high-production urban areas.
I still predict a balanced budget in Obama's second term. Yes, 4-5 percent inflation would help us deleverage, and is the only way left right now.
But mostly, I predict boom times, now that the Bush Follies are leaving the stage.
We are still stuck in the $3 trillion mess called Iraqistan--oh, remember the money spent there? That wasn't pure waste? How's $3 trillion next to Obama's $1 trillion stimulus waste-doggle?
But soon even that futile utopian mission in Afghanie will end, and solid economic growth will continue.
Ah, Benji,
Nothing to say about your boyfriend's ethanol whoring? But I guess what could you say?
"Check out US Tax Foundation stats for which states get what from the feds. You will be shocked, Rural red states are all subsidized, and heavily. The large urban states pay more in than they get out."
The Tax Foundation makes clear that's mostly because of the progessive income tax. Last I checked, your boyfriend and the rest of the Democrats consider the progressive income tax is sacrosanct.
"How's $3 trillion next to Obama's $1 trillion stimulus waste-doggle?"
How's the GOP deficits compared to your boyfriend and Pelosi's repeated $1.5 trillion per annum?
At least we get lots of dead terrorists in the wars.
"i will right now bet you anything that you like that there will not be a GAAP balanced budget under obama."
Benji doesn't mean right away, he's thinking Obama will rise from the ashes in 30 years sort of like Moonbeam Brown.
Che,
"You seem like an intelligent guy, don't get sucked into "Benji's" world."
We appreciate Benji here for the comic relief he provides. Many subjects discussed here are serious, and sometimes depressing. It's good to laugh once in a while.
benji-
you continually misinterpret MF.
he was not in favor of the fed trying to control the business cycle.
i suggest you actually read his work instead of partisan reporters attempts to twist it.
benji-
you continually misinterpret MF.
Why does the fact that Benji misinterpret anything is not a surprise?
That said, MF was a statist when it came to monetary policy. He opposed all central planning except when it came to the money supply.
v-
true, but he was also opposed to trying to control the business cycle. MF was a proponent of a constant expansion of money supply, not this deluge of cash QE nonsense.
i am astounded by the number of pundits who are claiming that he would have favored QE2. it's a ludicrous twisting of the facts.
true, but he was also opposed to trying to control the business cycle. MF was a proponent of a constant expansion of money supply, not this deluge of cash QE nonsense.
i am astounded by the number of pundits who are claiming that he would have favored QE2. it's a ludicrous twisting of the facts.
I agree that he was against trying to control the business cycle or any kind of QE nonsense.
But the point still is that by advocating a constant expansion of the fiat money supply, MF made the same type of error as other advocates of central planning.
"That said, MF was a statist when it came to monetary policy. He opposed all central planning except when it came to the money supply."
Is there anything that isn't "statist" in your eyes? Milton Friedman made no such support. But he was a realist, and in that respect he said that IF this is the system that we are stuck with, this is how it can be controlled from being used as a destabilizing tool. He made it quite clear that the central planning of money supply was not an improvement over the preexisting system, as it was advertised. But he also realized that such a system couldn't be replaced by wishful thinking. His job wasn't to fantasize.
Is there anything that isn't "statist" in your eyes? Milton Friedman made no such support.
Yes, Friedman was a fiat money man who had no problem with central planners controlling the money supply. That makes him a statist by definition, even though he opposed central planning in other areas of the economy.
"Yes, Friedman was a fiat money man who had no problem with central planners controlling the money supply."
You don't have to prove you're a clown in every sentence by showing that you've never read a word MF said on the subject.
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