Thursday, December 16, 2010

Christmas Card from the U.S. Labor Market: Initial Jobless Claims Fall for 6th Week to 27-Month Low

The Department of Labor today reported that seasonally-adjusted, initial unemployment claims fell by 3,000 for the week ending December 11, and the four-week moving average decreased by 5,250.  This was the sixth straight weekly decline in the moving average measure of jobless claims, bringing it down to 422,750 claims, the lowest level since the first week of August 2008, more than 27 months ago (see chart).  This ongoing downward trend in jobless claims over the last two years provides more evidence that the U.S. labor market is gradually improving.  

Most economic indicators (retail sales, industrial production, consumer and business confidence, leading economic indicator, rail traffic, state tax collections, personal income, international trade, global growth, etc.) are now pointing to increasing economic vibrancy that is gaining momentum, and we can look forward to the best retail holiday shopping season in three years, and  the strongest economy next year since 2007.

2 Comments:

At 12/17/2010 2:53 PM, Blogger sethstorm said...

Except for the part where declining losses still arent gains.

 
At 12/30/2010 10:19 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

If you look at the business surveys you will find that small businessmen are more worried about the economy this month than they have been for quite some time. The people in the front lines, who see the minute changes earlier than the perpetually positive analysts, are troubled by events that they observe on a daily basis. My bet is that they are far closer to the truth than the numbers being reported by the BLS and other government bureaucrats.

 

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