2010-2015 Could Be The Strongest Six-Year Period of World Real GDP Growth in a Generation
CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Sunday, November 21, 2010
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
Previous Posts
- Japan: Exports Surging from Strong Global Demand
- The Mandarins Now Come to Cuba By Boat
- Tenure: Economic Anomaly That Protects Laziness
- Right-to-Work vs. Forced Unionism States in 2009
- Quote of the Day
- China's Single-Child Adults Too Selfish for Marriage?
- How Did We Get in This Mess? "Reckless Departure"
- Weekly Rail Traffic Continues Steady Gains vs. 2009
- Leading Index, NY Fed Predict Continued Growth
- Weekly Jobless Claims Fall to 26-Month Low
17 Comments:
The world is having a party, but evidently the US is not invited.
China and India are running hot on the money presses, with 10 percent plus increases in their money supplies. I guess that worked, although they have some inflation.
Maybe the US is an exhausted empire; we are spending $1 trillion a year on a coprolitic military-foreign-VA complex, sucking money out of the private jobs- and wealth-creating sector.
And when do we get out of Afghanistan? Maybe next we will pour a trillion or two dollars into another very important country, like Upper Volta.
Not. A. Chance. In. The. World.
The government needs to make up its mind. The Fed is trying to start a bubble, while Obama is trying to stop a bubble (a gold bubble doesn't create much value, except generate dollars).
Also, it seems, U.S. defense spending as a percentage of GDP was twice as much in the 1960s than in the 2000s (perhaps, that helps explain the protests during Vietnam).
Moreover, it was higher in the 1950s than in the 1960s, and higher under Obama than Bush (Obama doesn't do anything cheap).
Quote from PeakTrader: "The government needs to make up its mind. The Fed is trying to start a bubble, while Obama is trying to stop a bubble (a gold bubble doesn't create much value, except generate dollars)."
Politics is a fine art. Remember that whenever you read anything from the government or their cheerleaders.
In a related story, I read where the whole world is going to be plunged into darkness as the trend in the amount of day light has been steadily decreasing for months.
and we believe the IMF, who pretty much never gets anything right because...?
This should give the conservation cult sustainability nightmares.
"...the trend in the amount of day light has been steadily decreasing for months...."
==========================
Cute.
"This should give the conservation cult sustainability nightmares"...
Not hardly I would think since conservatives know that liberals lie like most people breathe...
Apparently the IMF either doesn't look at or ignores the Drudge Report...
The International Monetary Fund is now predicting world real GDP growth this year of 4.6%, followed by 4.3% next year, and then 4.50% growth or above from 2012 to 2015.
How can that happen when the production of crude from existing oil wells is falling by more than 7% per year? If the IMF is right oil would be well north of $100 a barrel and gold will be over $2,500 as inflation takes off.
Benjamin needs a new word to make himself feel that he sounds like he knows what he's talking about, since "coprolitic" and the permutations that he frequently drops here have become trite.
Ad hominems aside, I've been reading this blog for many years and the perma-bull focus is also trite. We could be in a full-blown economic meltdown and Prof. Perry would yet be trumpeting how peachy keen things are looking. There comes a time to acknowledge the forest, even if all that you can see is a tree. Now's that time. If, like the IMF, you see rainbows and unicorns in our future, you have blinders on and are in denial.
Any recovery that we might be (or might not be) seeing is an illusion.
PCola: I had been using "fossilized dung" to describe federal agencies, but a clever reader pointed out that the single word "coprolite" filled the bill.
In my never-ending efforts to upgrade, I now go with "corprolite," or "corprolitic," to describe such federal agencies as the VA, USDA, Defense Department, HUD etc.
I believe I stand on ground as firm as, well, coprolite, when I use this word thusly.
Have you a better word? Pray tell.
We are witnessing the 'endarkenment'.
"We could be in a full-blown economic meltdown and Prof. Perry would yet be trumpeting how peachy keen things are looking"...
Hmmm, well skh.pcola I sometimes think that on the odd occassion maybe Professor Perry can be bit overly optimistic...
What I've found out though that over time Professor Perry tends to be a correct much more often than not in his calls...
Mind you I'm a bit more pessimistic about real GDP growth in the world than Professor Mark is but it won't suprise me one little bit if he turns out to be correct...
Juandos, the U.S. and E.U. economies are over 50% of world GDP.
The IMF prediction of 4 1/2% real growth is based on roughly 3% growth in developed countries and 7% growth in developing countries.
However (from article on U.S.):
"It takes about 3 percent (real) growth to create enough jobs just to keep up with the population increase. It would have to be about 5 percent for a full year just to drive the unemployment rate down 1 percentage point."
Benji, "fossilized dung" would imply that federal agencies are inert and non-aspirational. What they really are, instead, is a form of parasitic rot, like necrotizing fasciitis. The difference being that flesh-eating bacteria eventually run out of flesh to eat, while our benevolent government metastasizes into all aspects of our lives, incrementally wearing down our collective economic health.
Juandos, in the long term, Prof. Perry will be correct. What's the (by now) old saying? "He's called 13 of the last two recoveries." He and Roubini are of the same cloth...just different ends of the bolt. I don't come here daily to get a jolt of pessimism, but eternal optimism in the face of wealth-destroying policies promulgated by Obama and his minions is irresponsible. We're never going to see the projected growth while we have regulatory uncertainties of the scale that we now have in the US. Magical thinking won't change that.
Mr. Cola-
Okay, necritizing fasciitis it is--our federal agencies at work!
I have to confess I still prefer "coprolitic." Something about describing federal agencies as "dung"....more accurately captures the spirit of what I wish to convey.
"...the U.S. and E.U. economies are over 50% of world GDP"...
Normally no doubt about PT but have you seen all that 'good news' pouring out of the EU lately?
Considering the amount of debt by some of the EU members their part in that '50%' area doesn't look like its going to happen this coming year...
Post a Comment
<< Home