Saturday, October 09, 2010

NY Times: 72% Chance Republicans to Control House, Many Gubernatorial Takeovers Likely

From the NY Times FiveThirtyEight blog:

"Our model now estimates that the Republicans have a 72 percent chance of taking over the House, up from 67 percent last week. Moreover, they have nearly even odds of a achieving a net gain of 50 seats; their average gain in a typical simulation run was between 47 and 48 seats."

The blog's model also forecasts a 76 percent chance that Democrats will control at least 50 Senate seats, and is predicting a greater than 50% chance that Democrats will lose in governors' races to Republicans in at least ten states (WY, KS, OK, IA, TN, MI, PA, WI, OH, and NM), see graphic above.

Check out the blog's "Forecast Center" on the right side of the page for lots of detailed projections, interactive maps, etc.  

3 Comments:

At 10/09/2010 1:23 PM, Blogger juandos said...

I guess someone over at the WSJ is paying attention to 538...

Note the following from the WSJ: Democrat Bastions Besieged by GOP

There's an interactive map to go with this article: Congressional Contests

Interesting speculations...

 
At 10/09/2010 7:52 PM, Blogger Irrippi said...

I agree about the House and governorships, but the Senate odds are way off.

Republicans would have to win at least 6 out of 7 toss up Senate races to take control, and they're behind in at least half the polls. Some of the states are in strongly democrat states so even though the polling is tight, they're expected to win. Republicans have, in my view, only a 5% chance of taking the Senate.

But that doesn't matter. If they gain even 2 or 3 seats, they will negate the effect of the cross-over votes from Snowe, Brown, and Collins. Each additional seat is another nail in the coffin of Obama's agenda. Republicans will likely take the Senate in two years.

More importantly, they will take many state legislatures for redistricting.

 
At 10/10/2010 12:49 PM, Blogger Whiskey Jim said...

Despite the reasonable argument by Irrippi, I believe the models are low.

Turnout will be a huge factor, and barring thousands of dead voters finding a way to get to the polls, Republicans will win the close races.

And yes, I'm sure the models include estimates on voter participation. They will be low.

 

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