Sept. Durable Goods Orders Reach Two-Year High
New orders for durable manufactured goods in September reached the highest level ($199.1 billion) since September 2008, two years ago (see top chart above). The 12.2% increase in durable goods orders in September compared to the same month last year was the ninth consecutive double-digit increase starting in January of this year. From the cyclical low of $160 billion in March 2009, new orders for manufactured goods have increased by about 25% to almost $200 billion last month.
MP: We haven't heard much lately about a V-shaped recovery, but this 25% surge in orders for durable goods over the last 18 months to a two-year high in September sure seems like solid evidence of a V-shaped recovery for the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy. And since two out of the ten economic variables in the Leading Economic Index are based on manufacturers' new orders, this V-shaped increase in durable goods signals future increases in manufacturing output.