Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 2-Year Low
CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Thursday, September 09, 2010
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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4 Comments:
i dont recall you posting unadjusted claims when they hit a new high...
"...unadjusted initial jobless claims fell to a 2-year low last week of 376,558, the lowest level since the first week of September 2008"...
Hmmm, then these seasonally adjusted numbers from the BLS are telling us what?
"...unadjusted initial jobless claims fell to a 2-year low last week of 376,558, the lowest level since the first week of September 2008"...
Weren't we in a recession in September 2008? A alternative headline could be: "Unadjusted unemployment claims still at recessionary level."
While a little cranky, I have been pleased with the last couple of unemployment statistics. The August monthly unemployment report was the best monthly report since April. The last two weeks have shown some improvement in weekly claims. I am concerned about the revision to last weeks number because 9 states had not provided the data to the Department of Labor.
this is a tricky number to use last week.
9 states (including california) did not file claims data last week due to the labor day weekend.
their numbers were "estimated".
the adjusted number is near the highs of the year.
employment/workforce ratio remains right at the lows, part time for economic reasons right at the highs, and unemployed over 26 wks is still at post ww2 highs.
i also agree with juandos that it's cherry picking to use adjusted or unadjusted when they suit you. the adjusted number is not even at 3 month lows.
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