Thursday, August 12, 2010

Intrade Odds at 62% for Republicans to Take House

Intrade odds for the Republicans to control the House are now at an all-time contract high of 62%

6 Comments:

At 8/12/2010 5:37 PM, Blogger Eric said...

But the Dems keep the Senate. 2012 interesting as well.

 
At 8/13/2010 9:55 AM, Blogger juandos said...

The Cook Report's House Interactive Map is also worth a look at...

 
At 8/13/2010 10:01 AM, Blogger juandos said...

Consider the Cook Report's House Interactive Map

 
At 8/13/2010 2:50 PM, Blogger Junkyard_hawg1985 said...

Eric,

I'm not so sure the Dems keep the Senate. Sean Trende wrote a great article on 12/31/09 telling why Scott Brown could win in Massachusetts. He based his calculations looking at 2009 governor races in VA and NJ. From 2008 to 2009, Dem turnout fell 11% and Rep turnout increased 11% in those two states. The Dem candidate share of the Dem vote increased 2 points, the Dem share of the Rep vote fell in half, and the dem share of the independent vote fell by a third. He then calculated that the race would be extremely tight. I took Sean's turnout model (which was spot on), then applied the actual polling data crosstabs from MA to make a prediction on final votes. I came with 1/2% of the correct vote total for Scott Brown.

If I follow the same methodolgy that I used then, Republicans easily (>10% margin) pick up seats in North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Delaware, Colorado and Pennsylvania. Republicans should pick up seats in Illinois and Wisconsin by >5%.

There are 4 toss-up states with margins less than 4% (Nevada, California, Washington, Connecticut) which I call toss-ups. Republicans need to win two* of these to have a majority.

The basic assumption of this methodology is that the shift in partisan voting patterns between 2008 and 2009 will carry though to Nov. 2010. Not only do I believe that it will, but the bias is for a bigger shift than this because Obama's net job approval has fallen from +6% to -4% since late 2009 early 2010.


* The assumption that Republicans need to win two of the toss-up for a Senate majority depends on Florida. Charlie Crist may win the Republican held senate seat in Florida as an Indepedent. At this time it is not known whether he would caucus as a Republican or Democrat (or even push for Joe Leiberman to lead the Senate as an Independent).

 
At 8/13/2010 3:18 PM, Blogger juandos said...

I guess professor mark doesn't like the idea that Cook's interactive map seems to bear out what intrade is offering...

 
At 8/16/2010 9:22 AM, Blogger Junkyard_hawg1985 said...

Juandos,

The Cook map is very pretty and a neat tool, but unfortunately, it is not accurate for this year's election. In 2008, Democrats won the congressional vote nationwide by 8% and ended up with a 40 seat majority. Looking at the likely voter turnout nationwide (34.7% D, 35.5% R, 29.8% I) and applying registered voter preferences (Quinnipiac, Gallup, Fox), Republicans win by ~8% which should be good for a 40+ seat majority for Republicans (80 seat swing). If you apply Likely Voter crosstabs to the turnout (Rasmussen), Republicans win by ~15%. This should swing ~100 house seats.

 

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