Monday, August 09, 2010

Chart of the Day: Jobs vs. Help Wanted Ads Gap

The chart above shows monthly payroll employment and monthly online help wanted ads from May 2005 to July 2010.  Since the April 2009 low of 3,188,800 total online help wanted ads, there has been an increase of 1.105 million help wanted ads to 4.29 million in July.  From the December 2009 bottom of 129.58 million jobs there has been an increase of only 654,000 payroll jobs, for a ratio of 1.7 new jobs advertised and available for every one new job added to U.S. payrolls.  And the last time there were 4.29 million online help wanted ads in November 2008, there were 135 million payroll jobs.  So perhaps there's a long lag between when online help wanted ads appear and when those jobs are actually filled, in which case we can expect almost 5 million jobs to be filled based on the number of jobs advertised.  Or maybe the "U.S. could end up with a permanent caste of long-term unemployed, like those that weigh on government budgets in some European countries," as mentioned in today's Wall Street Journal?

25 Comments:

At 8/09/2010 10:44 PM, Blogger Dr William J McKibbin said...

Regretfully, many if not most of today's unemployed in the US will likely never work again in this country. The reality of living on charity or homelessness will force many families in America to emigrate to other countries in order to find a better life for themselves and/or their children. I wish the news were better. More at:

http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2010/08/us-employment-to-population-ratio.html

The US employment to population ratio has been declining for a decade now -- clearly, the US economy is getting smaller in terms of jobs outside of government...

 
At 8/10/2010 8:25 AM, Blogger juandos said...

"Regretfully, many if not most of today's unemployed in the US will likely never work again in this country"...

Hmmm, to lazy or incompetent to get a job?

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover – May 2010

'There were 3.2 million job openings on the last business day of May 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The job openings rate was little changed over the month at 2.4 percent. The hires rate (3.4 percent) was little changed and the separations rate (3.1 percent) was unchanged. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total
nonfarm sector by industry and geographic region
'...

Now obviously the number of jobs going without employees to fill them won't cover all the unemployed but its a start...

I think these things tend to snowball...

More people employed means that more people have disposable cash to spend which would mean more people could end up with work...

It may not be as good a job as some had previously but unless one has job skills that are in high demand in other countries the unemployed are going nowhere...

 
At 8/10/2010 9:46 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

i'd be really interested to see who are listing all the job openings.

it does not seem to be small businesses. their confidence level is low and their employment outlook is negative.

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/08/nfib-small-business-optimism-july-2010.html

 
At 8/10/2010 10:05 AM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

Juandos commenting on the jobs prospects for the U.S. unemployed:

"It may not be as good a job as some had previously but unless one has job skills that are in high demand in other countries the unemployed are going nowhere..."

OMG, what happened to the can do spirit of Americans? Go to other countries with your skills? No, No, No.

Citizens of the U.S., demand that private enterprise be given the opportunity to suceed and not wither. The costs to employ are much to great but so are fraudulent trade arrangements that smother Export opportunities in growing markets for U.S. goods and services.

 
At 8/10/2010 10:31 AM, Blogger Andy Harless said...

Apparently, this post is trying to compare the gross figure of online help wanted advertising with the net figure of employment growth. Not a very meaningful comparison, since many old jobs are disappearing at the same time as new jobs appear. There is not "a long lag between when online help wanted ads appear and when those jobs are actually filled," and there is thus far no evidence for "a permanent caste of long-term unemployed." Rather, the advertised jobs are being filled quickly, as always, but total employment is not rising, because people are being laid off from old jobs.

Another factor that needs to be taken into account here is the decline of print advertising. The chart gives the impression that there is almost as much help wanted advertising now as there was in 2006, but that impression is inaccurate. In 2006, there was still a significant amount of print advertising, which has since fallen by a factor of more than 3 and has not revived at all since 2009.

 
At 8/10/2010 10:55 AM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"Hmmm, to lazy or incompetent to get a job?"

Or working for cash as you pointed out on a previous thread.

Endlessly extended unemployment benefits, food stamps, healthcare, AND working for cash would likely keep ME from taking another job.

 
At 8/10/2010 11:16 AM, Blogger Ron H. said...

Buddy R Pacifico said...


"Citizens of the U.S., demand that private enterprise be given the opportunity to suceed and not wither."

I assume this means a loud cry of: "Government get off our back!"

"The costs to employ are much to great but so are fraudulent trade arrangements"

What do you mean by a "fraudulent trade arrangement"?

"Go to other countries with your skills? No, No, No."

Are you suggesting that I have a patriotic duty to ignore my own best interests and accept a lower standard of living for myself and my family?

Who is this? Are you Joe Biden?

 
At 8/10/2010 12:08 PM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

Ron H, trade agreements with several countries are fraudulent on many levels. An example would be the absence of agreed upon enforcement of intellectual property rights and anti-counterfeitting iniatives.

Last week, Pier 39 in San Francisco was the scene of a massive bust of counterfeitted items that were imported.

My other comments stand on their own as a plea to the U.S. to allow human resources be employed at the highest level and lower dramatically the counterweights of government burdens. Nowhere did I state that people be discouraged from legal foreign opportunities; only that I hope they are in the U.S.

 
At 8/10/2010 12:38 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"Nowhere did I state that people be discouraged from legal foreign opportunities; only that I hope they are in the U.S."

Hmmm...I guess I misunderstood the following:

"Go to other countries with your skills? No, No, No."

 
At 8/10/2010 1:32 PM, Blogger Buddy R Pacifico said...

Ron H, BTW, one of my own U.S. raised children now works in another country and not for a U.S. firm. I will work for opportunities for that child to return their home country.

Can the U.S. count on you to work for competitive markets in foreign economies for U.S. made goods and services? Goods and Services that are a product of increasingly technological advanced processes that need to be protected from theft? You, as consumer Ron, don't support the sale of stolen intellectual property or counterfeit goods do you?

 
At 8/10/2010 1:42 PM, Blogger bobble said...

Ron H, another example of trade agreement fraud is china's currency manipulation.

. . . an IMF member shall not "manipulate exchange rates or the international monetary system in order to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to gain an unfair competitive advantage over other members" (IMF Agreement Article IV, Section 1(iii))."

 
At 8/10/2010 8:04 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"I will work for opportunities for that child to return their home country."

Is that what your child wants?

"Can the U.S. count on you to work for competitive markets in foreign economies for U.S. made goods and services?"

Who is this "US" you speak of as if there were one face and one voice representing all 300 million of us?

It's us versus them, eh?

 
At 8/10/2010 8:13 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"Ron H, another example of trade agreement fraud is china's currency manipulation."

bobble

If China is violating IMF agreements, then the IMF can revoke China's membership.

Keep in mind that pegging its currency low helps all of us as consumers, and hurts Chinese workers and businesses. We get to buy things cheap, and they don't. They don't even get to spend the money they have earned, as they keep loaning it to the US government.

 
At 8/10/2010 11:15 PM, Blogger bobble said...

ron h:"If China is violating IMF agreements, then the IMF can revoke China's membership."

the US has to make a formal complaint. its politics, my friend. it's unlikely to happen right now.

ron h.:"Keep in mind that pegging its currency low helps all of us as consumers . . . We get to buy things cheap . . ."

true. so with all the money you save on cheap big screen TVs, you shouldn't mind paying a little for those increasingly extended unemployment benefits.

 
At 8/11/2010 1:19 AM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"true. so with all the money you save on cheap big screen TVs, you shouldn't mind paying a little for those increasingly extended unemployment benefits."

Oh but I do mind. I'm already spending the money I save on other things in this country. I'm better off because of it and so are others where I spend the money. Unemployment would be even higher if I weren't able to buy so many cheap Chinese goods.

Surely you don't believe we would all be somehow better off if we had to spend more for everything.

Big screen TVs and most other electronics have razor thin profit margins & fierce competition. They aren't worth making in this country. Let those who are willing to settle for so little make them. We have better things to do. Comparative advantage and all that, right.

 
At 8/11/2010 1:52 AM, Blogger Ron H. said...

"the US has to make a formal complaint. its politics, my friend. it's unlikely to happen right now."

You're certainly right about this part, Bobble. I can only conclude that the currency issue isn't seen as a serious problem.

One must also wonder what value there is to the IMF if agreements can be broken with no consequences. Like most international organizations, it appears to be a waste of time and money.

 
At 8/11/2010 11:57 AM, Blogger sethstorm said...

Juandos:
You're so dismissive of the worker yet very sympathetic to (only) the business. You're quick to say that the worker is lazy, but that the business can't do wrong/hasn't done wrong. You may have not run into a dishonest business (or interacted with the dishonest components), but they do indeed exist. Government action is about the only thing that works against them.

As for the fraud claim, it is by businesses that have decided to avoid hiring a US citizen such that they get an indentured servant(or worse). That shows contempt for the US citizen, such that the business no longer can make them an indentured servant.

Either the business plays ball, or government finds a way to get them to do so. By any means possible, even if it means pursuing them beyond US jurisdictions.

 
At 8/11/2010 12:15 PM, Blogger Paul said...

"You're quick to say that the worker is lazy, but that the business can't do wrong/hasn't done wrong."

~Sethstorm from his couch.

Perhaps Juandos will reply when he finishes work.

 
At 8/11/2010 2:16 PM, Blogger sethstorm said...

Paul:
Not sure that you're able to justify it that way - you are suggesting that they should have to take the greater sacrifice. How about businesses stop trying to play hiring games with inflated qualifications and try to be reasonable for once?

Otherwise the government has every right and reason to act and pursue. If force is what it takes to get employers to employ directly without, force is what is needs to be used. However, the businesses were the ones that are unwilling to act or are unwilling to act honestly - and not simply wait for the right set of politicians before they'll act.

The laziness excuse stopped being valid in 2003, when contempt for US citizens was shown in all industries and levels of work.

 
At 8/11/2010 2:28 PM, Blogger Paul said...

"The laziness excuse stopped being valid in 2003, when contempt for US citizens was shown in all industries and levels of work."

Sethstorm again from his couch.

 
At 8/11/2010 2:44 PM, Blogger sethstorm said...

Paul:
Whatever you're trying to insinuate regarding the "lazy unemployed" is horribly inaccurate.

 
At 8/11/2010 3:21 PM, Blogger Paul said...

"Whatever you're trying to insinuate regarding the "lazy unemployed" is horribly inaccurate."

So get off the couch and prove it.

 
At 8/11/2010 6:07 PM, Blogger sethstorm said...


Paul said...

You presume that there are opportunities that exist, an employer is willing to pay me a reasonable wage for the work performed, and is not trying to get out of some regulation because of their cheapness. But then you presume I never can do right and they can do no wrong.

 
At 8/13/2010 3:30 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"You're so dismissive of the worker yet very sympathetic to (only) the business"...

Hmmm, sethstorm did you forget its business' money NOT your money or the federal government's money to invest?

"Government action is about the only thing that works against them"...

So putting a business out of business is your idea of a solution sethstorm?

"As for the fraud claim, it is by businesses that have decided to avoid hiring a US citizen such that they get an indentured servant(or worse)"...

You of course have something substantial and credible to bolster this silly whine, right?

"Either the business plays ball, or government finds a way to get them to do so"...

Let me guess sethstorm you flunked basic economics while in school, right?

The only thing the government can do is make the market environment so inhospitable that the business shuts down...

So I ask again sethstorm is this your idea of a solution?

 
At 8/14/2010 1:19 AM, Blogger Ron H. said...

""Either the business plays ball, or government finds a way to get them to do so"..."

Is this more sports talk? I thought that was a different thread.

 

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