Global Economy's Remarkable Recovery: World Trade Projected to Expand by 8.1% This Year
Excerpts from a bullish report on world trade and global shipping from IHS Global Insight (Press Release here and Executive Summary here):
"Global trade along virtually every trade route has shown a remarkable recovery from the 2007–09 recession. Despite some commentators' views that global trade volumes would not recover to their earlier levels before 2013 at the earliest, we are seeing what appears to be a sustained recovery in trade since late 2009 through at least the middle of 2010.
International trade volumes are forecasted to increase in line with the recovery in demand. World trade by all modes (airborne, seaborne, and overland) declined 7.2% in 2009. As the economy improves through the middle of 2010, total world trade is forecasted to grow 8.1%, followed by 6.9% growth in 2011.
Containerized trade volumes at the global level are forecast to reach nearly 10.0 percent, with a slightly stronger recovery – 10.6 percent -- on the mainline East-West trade lanes in 2010, before slowing over the next two years. While trade growth is projected into 2011 and beyond, the pace is expected to be slower than in 2010. However, 2010 and 2011 will be banner years relative to the hardship the container industry faced in 2008 and 2009 with 3% and -8% growth on TEU volumes, respectively.
Dry bulk commodity shipment tonnage, which includes grain, iron ore, and coal, will increase 10.3 percent in 2010 and 8.7 percent in 2011."