Friday, July 09, 2010

OECD Leading Index Increases for 15th Month

Data released today from the OECD shows that its Composite Leading Indicator Index for 28 member OECD countries reached a 31-year high in May (see chart above, data here).  The OECD Composite Leading Indicators increased slightly in May to 103.7 from 103.6 in April, and reached the highest level in the index's history since March 1979.  The OECD Leading Index has now increased for 15 consecutive months, although the increase in May was the smallest monthly increase since the positive trend started in March of 2009. 

On an individual country basis, the May leading indexes were mixed, with about half of the countries registering slight decreases and the other half showing increases.  The United States leading index increased in May and reached the highest level since August 2007, and the major country groupings including the G7, NAFTA, and OECD Europe all increased in May.  Non-OECD countries were also mixed, with the indexes for Indonesia, Russia and South Africa increasing in May, and Brazil, China and India decreasing slightly. 

According to the OECD report, the "OECD composite leading indicators for May 2010 continue to point to an expansion but with stronger signals of a slowing pace of growth than in last month’s assessment."

3 Comments:

At 7/09/2010 9:50 AM, Blogger Madelaine J. Watson, MSW, CHT, CIM said...

I am not as computer savvy....but I want to be a follower of your site....can you advise?
Madelaine

 
At 7/09/2010 6:03 PM, Blogger juandos said...

"The CLIs for Germany, Japan, the United States and Russia continue to indicate that the ongoing expansion in activity is likely to be maintained, but possibly at a slower pace"...

Hmmm, maybe I'm not reading this OECD data correctly but it seems to me that this is a somewhat upbeat report, right?

The folks over at ZeroHedge aren't all that optimistic as far as the US is concerned: Presenting The Wall Of Worry: The 50 Ugliest Facts About The US eCONomy

One of the links in the 'The 50 Ugliest...' is the Forbes link describing the US Debt Bomb...

Now that was ugly!!

 
At 7/11/2010 3:36 PM, Anonymous Miguel Sanchez said...

As I predicted a few months back, the downturn in the leading index for New Zealand has been completely revised away, and it has now been "forecasting" the recovery since January 2009. These "leading" indicators are so backwards-looking it's not funny.

 

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