NY Fed Model: No Chance of Double-Dip in 2011
On Monday, the New York Federal Reserve updated its "Probability of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread" with treasury yield data through May 2010, and the Fed's recession probability forecast through May 2011 (see top chart above). The NY Fed's model uses the spread between the yields on 10-year Treasury notes (3.42% in May) and 3-month Treasury bills (0.16% in May) to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession up to twelve months ahead (see details here).
The Fed's model (data here) shows that the recession probability peaked during the October 2007 to April 2008 period at around 35-40%, and has been declining since then in almost every month. For May 2010, the recession probability is only 0.17% (about 1/6 of 1%) and by a year from now in May of next year the recession probability is even lower, at only 0.12%.
According to the NY Fed Treasury Spread model, the recession ended sometime in middle of 2009, and the chances of a double-dip recession through May of 2011 are essentially zero.