Rasmussen: Obama Approval at All-Time Low of -22
CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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23 Comments:
Rasmussen? Really? Quinnipiac shows 48 positive against 43 negative, so does every other poll, except of course Rasmussen. But I am sure we all want to believe whatever we want to believe.
Rasmussen uses likely voters. Most other polls just use adults or registered voters. Many, like CBS also game the population to get the results they want
If you use adults or registered voters to predict election outcomes, it generally doesn't work.
CBS "game the population" ? And Rasmussem doesn't? Again, we all believe whatever we want. Rasmussen only calls landlines, not cell phones, so there goes the youngsters that usually vote liberal, and voted massively for Obama. They used scripted calls, not live operators; so who answers them? Do you? I think of old grandparents too bored with "The Wheel of Fortune"
argento-
rassmussen has been the most accurate pollster in the last several elections.
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
they were also most accurate in the bush kerry election and the first to see the upset coming in the recent mass senatorial election.
you're just flat out wrong in your view. if their methodology is so bad, why do they keep getting the best results?
qinnipiac wasn't even in the top 20. seems you may be the one believing who he wants to believe. me, i like a proven track record.
you may not like some of the questions they ask (and some are certainly leading) but for straightforward things like approve/disapprove or who will you vote for, no one performs better than rassmussen.
to always be the outlier and always get the closest result is s sign of a very good and differentiated process.
arguing against the best of the group because you don't like their results is like demanding a less accurate tape measure because your pants don't fit.
Have you ever read the CBS population and how they adjust the ratings? Clearly not.
Show me where Rasmussen falls way off the actual voting results. How else is there to check the accuracy of any polls than to match to actual results?
Anonymous (is that your real name?): No, have you?
I was going to point out that there's a 60% chance he's going to get re-elected though, but you beat me to it.
http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2010/05/25/obama-approval-low-chances-of-reelection-high/
Hey - since when do you cross-post to dailymarkets.com? Is this just another site stealing your posts?
Yes Dr., I have. Last page.
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_052510.pdf?tag=contentMain;contentBody
They take the actual survey population and "weight" the responses. So 308 actual Republicans in the response pool is weighted to 272. 327 Democrats is turned into 324, and 419 independents turns into 458.
There's no rhyme, as even if their poll comes out around the same original mix, they sometimes do not weight the results. And their weightings are not consistent, to say xx% Republicans and xx% Democrats every time after weighting.
The most disturbing thing is that 23% of the nation's voters are clearly delusional. And according to "Dr. Argento", most of "youngsters" are inclined to follow them of that cliff.
The polls mean little.
The Big Q: Can Obama-Biden beat Palin-Bachman (the probable Tea Party-R-Party ticket).
I suspect Palin-Bachman will be a Goldwater year. A rout for the D-Party.
Then R-Party regulars will craft a sensible winning team for 2016.
But in 2012, the talk show crowd is blasting R-Party regulars back into Hades.
The polls mean little.
And we all know that "Benny" is an expert on things of little meaning.
I can't believe it's only -22.
This is the more important poll:
63% Favor Repeal of National Health Care Plan
That would be actually kind of fun to watch: Palin-Bachman ticket! But again: "No one in this world has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby."
And since we are talking about repealing health care, the Rs should put their money where their mouth is and go for broke: REPEAL MEDICARE! After all, medicare is socialism and a government takeover of public health!! I wonder what a poll on that would show...
Watching the hypocrisy, idiocy and stupidity of the political discourse today is very entertaining.
Palin/Bakman isn't going to happen. Who had money on Obama/Biden or
McCain/Palin back in early 2006?
No one.
When's the last time the early favorite, other than the incumbent, made it through? Al Gore was probably the last.
The beauty contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states really go weird directions as they unfold. You never know if someone's going to have a Howard Dean moment.
Enjoying every day that the approval index heads lower. It's good for the stock market and business in general. For that matter, America also.
The quicker he gets thrown from office, along with the rest of the demo-idiots on the Hill, the better.
I agree, REPEAL MEDICARE. Thank you.
Marko said...
I agree, REPEAL MEDICARE. Thank you.
I second that! repeal social security also. In fact repeal the entire New Deal and Great Society.
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"..the Rs should put their money where their mouth is and go for broke: REPEAL MEDICARE!"
Was the "go for broke" a Freudian slip? Medicare's unfunded liabilities are in the tens of trillions.
"Rasmussen? Really? Quinnipiac shows 48 positive against 43 negative, so does every other poll, except of course Rasmussen"...
Really Dr. Argento you really should consider another source other than the Daily Kos...
... the Rs should put their money where their mouth is and go for broke: REPEAL MEDICARE! After all, medicare is socialism and a government takeover of public health!!
Medicare will repeal itself as it goes broke. What the "R's" should do is to continually point out how the Democrats structured Medicare and Social Security as unsustainable Ponzi schemes into which millions of Americans have been forced to put their life savings.
Watching the hypocrisy, idiocy and stupidity of the left is very entertaining, or would be, if so many innocent people were not put at risk by their ignorance and incompetence.
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