Obama Approval Low, Chances of Reelection High
According to Intrade, there is a 87% chance that Obama will be the Democratic candidate for President in 2012, and a 60% chance that the Democratic candidate will win the 2012 election.
CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
According to Intrade, there is a 87% chance that Obama will be the Democratic candidate for President in 2012, and a 60% chance that the Democratic candidate will win the 2012 election.
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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22 Comments:
The question is, what are those 24% of voters thinking?
I don't know anyone (as in not a single person, Republican or Democrat) who thinks Obama is doing a good job as president.
i don't think inrtrade has a very good track record on events that far in the future.
i suspect it will converge with the polls as the election nears.
Before you know it, Obama's Presidential Approval Index will decline to and match the last month that Bush was in office. That was a -30 index reading.
Before you know it, Obama's Presidential Approval Index will decline to and match the last month that Bush was in office.
Yeah, and unlike Bush, who was the continual target of a vicious smear campaign waged by the "news media", Obama has been there darling. In fact, Bush's popularity has been resurgent, thanks to the comparison with Obama's corrupt incompetence.
What Morganovich said. Also, note that the contract trades around 8K shares per day.
Anything that illiquid is not providing a reliable indication of the real sentiment. The election is so far in the future, the contract is not drawing much interest.
But....even if he's not re-elected, this dangerous incompetent boob has already done enough damage to this country to sink it.
A couple of comments:
1) His overall approval rating hit a new low today at 42%.
2) While his approval index is better than Bush's, it is worth noting that the percentage of the population who strongly disapprove of Obama's job as president now exceeds those who strongly disapproved of Bush in his final month.
People always learn something new.
It looks like he did a double whammy on the South's Red State economies.
I thik we see a Palin-Bachman ticket in 2012, as the Republican Party establishment has been blasted back into to Hades by the Tea Partiers.
It is the talk show crowd that is dominating R-Party primaries. Sean Hannity is calling the shots, not some party loyalists in DC.
So, can a Palin-Bachman beat an Obama-Biden ticket?
Time will tell. Looks like a wild one. Could be Reaganesque or Goldwaterian.
Now I know why BP is unable to stop the spill:
"We will keep our boot on their neck."
-Interior Secretary Ken Salazar
"So, can a Palin-Bachman beat an Obama-Biden ticket?"
And will Benji pull the lever yet again for his boyfriend if that improbable scenario comes to pass?
Oh, yesssss...
>"2) While his approval index is better than Bush's, it is worth noting that the percentage of the population who strongly disapprove of Obama's job as president now exceeds those who strongly disapproved of Bush in his final month."
Besides, it took Bush 8 years to sink to his low approval level. Obama has only been sinking for 16 months. He still has 973 days in which to reach his lowest approval rating.
He still has 973 days in which to reach his lowest approval rating.
At this rate of decline....is it possible to have a negative approval rating?
I think that historically, that is known as the "guillotine" rating.
>"I think that historically, that is known as the "guillotine" rating."
Ah, the good old days. I never understood why this method of getting rid of unpopular rulers fell out of favor.
It hasn't fallen out of favour with me, Ron.
Just sayin'....
>It hasn't fallen out of favour with me, Ron.
One problem I have is with the line of succession. I have trouble saying President Biden, and then there's President Pel...Pe...Pe...See? I can't even write it, it's such a horrible thought.
Of course our pres and best buddy is doing an excellent job bankrupting us. Give him some credit.
"We will keep our boot on their neck."
All I can say to that is it's a good thing Oiltrina didn't happen when Bush was in, there would be riots.
Ron,
I thought when you said get rid of "leaders" you meant that in the plural.
Usually, these kinds of revolutions don't leave many of the old guard standing. The whole point is to teach big brother that while none of the population was safe from him, none of his posse is safe from us now.
I can't say Pe...Peeee....Ugh...either. Oh well. Even if we do everything right, there's a 30% chance we'll be wrong. This is the brilliance that thinks it is better at making decisions for you than you are.
>"This is the brilliance that thinks it is better at making decisions for you than you are."
I see this everywhere, and many people seem to just accept it. I find myself saying: "Wake up!"
It looks like Obama's approval index fell another two points to -22 to hit a new low today:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history
45% now strongly disapprove of the job he is doing as president.
"According to Intrade, there is a 87% chance that Obama will be the Democratic candidate for President in 2012, and a 60% chance that the Democratic candidate will win the 2012 election."
.87 x .6 = .522
52.2% is high?
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