Might Be 2011 Before Official NBER Announcement

WASHINGTON — "A panel of academics that date the beginnings and ends of recessions isn't ready to declare just yet when this downturn ended. The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that although most barometers show improvements in the economy, it would be "premature" to pinpoint the end of a recession based on economic data seen so far. That assessment came after the group of academic economists met at its Cambridge, Mass., headquarters on Thursday to review mountains of economic data."

MP: It took 20 months after the 2001 recession, and 21 months following the 1990-1991 recession, for the NBER to make the official announcement that those recessions had ended. In that case, we shouldn't expect the official announcement until early 2011 that the most recent recession ended, assuming that the recession may have ended as early as June 2009.