25 Reasons the Bull Market Recovery is Real
James Altucher in today's NY Post "Rally Believing It":
"The data suggest that the economy is starting to surge upward. Here are 25 statistics and anecdotes that suggest that the strength in the economy is real:
1. Average hourly wages are $18.90, up from $18.52 a year ago. (Before employers hire full-time, they get their workers to work overtime, resulting in higher pay).
2. Aggregate weekly hours worked is the highest it's been since June 2009 -- again, suggesting overtime. Only so much overtime can be worked before hiring begins.
3. Industrial production index up 9 months in a row after plummeting 13 percent from December 2007 to June 2009.
4. Retail sales up 10 percent year over year.
5. GDP last quarter showed 5.9 percent annual growth.
6. Initial unemployment claims have gone from a peak of 643,000 in April 2009 to 480,000 now.
7. The Greek debt crisis seems to be ending without major fallout in the form of other nations defaulting.
8. Home-improvement-related retail sales were up 3.1 percent, suggesting consumers are putting money back into their homes again.
9. Railroad traffic, a sign of interest in commodities, is up 16 percent, the highest since the recession began.
10. Rail shipments of metals were strongest as manufacturers are rebuilding inventories.
11. JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America both announced loan delinquencies were decreasing. JPMorgan also announced plans to hire 9000, their biggest hiring spree since the recession began.
12. UPS profits were 20 percent higher than expected as US shipments saw their first year-over-year increase since 2007.
13. Economists estimate that China's GDP grew by 11 percent last quarter, the most in 3 years.
14. Singapore posted GDP growth of 9 percent last quarter and South Korea had the largest unemployment rate drop in over a decade.
15. A sharp increase in M&A activity where the acquirers are using cash rather than stock to buy companies (showing confidence in their businesses).
16. Target, Kohls, TJX and Aeropostale all increased earnings guidance for the next quarter, showing retail strength across the board.
17. Auto sales are spiking. March annualized auto sales showed a 15 percent gain over February.
18. ISM non-manufacturing index (showing the strength of non-manufacturing indexes) had the highest percent increase in five years.
19. The National Association of Realtors said that pending sales of existing homes jumped 8.2 percent over last month.
20. Employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the biggest gain in four years.
21. Ford reported the best monthly sales in 25 years.
22. The government has made money on its Troubled Asset Relief Program bailouts of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, American Express, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and almost every other bank they lent to.
23. Consumer spending had its fastest increase in three years last month.
24. Intel, a barometer of the entire tech sector, saw its earnings quadruple from a year ago and said its earnings were the best ever for that period. They also reported record results for the chips used in mobile devices and said corporate tech spending was growing across the US.
25. Despite growth and low interest rates, inflation is almost non-existent with the CPI coming in at 0.1 percent last month."
1. Average hourly wages are $18.90, up from $18.52 a year ago. (Before employers hire full-time, they get their workers to work overtime, resulting in higher pay).
2. Aggregate weekly hours worked is the highest it's been since June 2009 -- again, suggesting overtime. Only so much overtime can be worked before hiring begins.
3. Industrial production index up 9 months in a row after plummeting 13 percent from December 2007 to June 2009.
4. Retail sales up 10 percent year over year.
5. GDP last quarter showed 5.9 percent annual growth.
6. Initial unemployment claims have gone from a peak of 643,000 in April 2009 to 480,000 now.
7. The Greek debt crisis seems to be ending without major fallout in the form of other nations defaulting.
8. Home-improvement-related retail sales were up 3.1 percent, suggesting consumers are putting money back into their homes again.
9. Railroad traffic, a sign of interest in commodities, is up 16 percent, the highest since the recession began.
10. Rail shipments of metals were strongest as manufacturers are rebuilding inventories.
11. JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America both announced loan delinquencies were decreasing. JPMorgan also announced plans to hire 9000, their biggest hiring spree since the recession began.
12. UPS profits were 20 percent higher than expected as US shipments saw their first year-over-year increase since 2007.
13. Economists estimate that China's GDP grew by 11 percent last quarter, the most in 3 years.
14. Singapore posted GDP growth of 9 percent last quarter and South Korea had the largest unemployment rate drop in over a decade.
15. A sharp increase in M&A activity where the acquirers are using cash rather than stock to buy companies (showing confidence in their businesses).
16. Target, Kohls, TJX and Aeropostale all increased earnings guidance for the next quarter, showing retail strength across the board.
17. Auto sales are spiking. March annualized auto sales showed a 15 percent gain over February.
18. ISM non-manufacturing index (showing the strength of non-manufacturing indexes) had the highest percent increase in five years.
19. The National Association of Realtors said that pending sales of existing homes jumped 8.2 percent over last month.
20. Employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the biggest gain in four years.
21. Ford reported the best monthly sales in 25 years.
22. The government has made money on its Troubled Asset Relief Program bailouts of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, American Express, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and almost every other bank they lent to.
23. Consumer spending had its fastest increase in three years last month.
24. Intel, a barometer of the entire tech sector, saw its earnings quadruple from a year ago and said its earnings were the best ever for that period. They also reported record results for the chips used in mobile devices and said corporate tech spending was growing across the US.
25. Despite growth and low interest rates, inflation is almost non-existent with the CPI coming in at 0.1 percent last month."
Posted 8:11 PM Post Link 17 Comments
17 Comments:
It's thing like "Home-improvement-related retail sales were up 3.1 percent, suggesting consumers are putting money back into their homes again." where you lose credibility.
The government is running $8,000 cash/credit back with no money down home loan programs. Breitbart's O'Keefe ran one of his under cover stings a 8 HUD office where they tried to swap mortgages to get the $8,000 credit and all the HUD offices went along with the fraud.
There's all sorts of government tax credits and rebate programs going on for people to do improvements to their homes and these programs have been hit with fraud too.
I'd like to see what the real numbers would be if it was for the Chinese paying the bill.
President Obama thank you for the recovery of our economy, Obama we are very greatful for bringing us out of the recession created by George Bush polocies.
Soon the shortsighted naysayers will be proven wrong. Perhaps a year or so after that they will begin to understand that they were wrong. Eventually they will find the confidence to take their money out of money market funds and buy lots of stock - just as the market tops out.
Z
I would like to thank Obama for ending this years winter. For surely this time it would not have ended on its own (as it has every time in the past).
Z
What happens when the Fed stops financing our Recovery? Rate Hikes are just around the corner. Jobs are not coming back as strong as they need to be. Small business is the engine of our economy and not able to grow, expand or hire because of our credit issues. The housing stimulus ends this month. Global energy prices on the rise at a time when the Economy is at a turning point. I see these issues to be a concern for a Strong global recovery, and will potential cause a double Dip Recession end of 2011 and into 2012.
So what happens when the Dems and the Obama administration run out of other people's money?
Or as Michael Barone puts it: Gangster Government becomes a long-running series
What happens when people don't trust the government?
From Pew: By almost every conceivable measure Americans are less positive and more critical of government these days. A new Pew Research Center survey finds a perfect storm of conditions associated with distrust of government -- a dismal economy, an unhappy public, bitter partisan-based backlash, and epic discontent with Congress and elected officials...
By almost every conceivable measure Americans are less positive and more critical of government these days. A new Pew Research Center survey finds a perfect storm of conditions associated with distrust of government -- a dismal economy, an unhappy public, bitter partisan-based backlash, and epic discontent with Congress and elected officials...
What's that got to do with Obama?
You would allow a carpenter four months to build your house from scratch. You woould alllow a painter a week to repaint after your previous tenants moved out.
Jesus was a carpenter, but even he would take more than a year to clean up after the last tenants.
By almost every conceivable measure Americans are less positive and more critical of government these days. A new Pew Research Center survey finds a perfect storm of conditions associated with distrust of government -- a dismal economy, an unhappy public, bitter partisan-based backlash, and epic discontent with Congress and elected officials...
You can easliy slap this statement on any generation in this country's history. Nothing really new here.
Economies are built by confidence and the natural human inclination, if left unhindered, is to prosper. During good times, the mood is different as people feel wealthier and more properous. Governments have always been the target of criticism during bad times and praised during good times.
We must shake off these shackles of negativity and look towards the future. This country wasnt forged by doomsayers (although its had its fair share), but by visionaries who refused to believe in negative rhetoric and opted to pursue great dreams.
It not doom saying to talk about things that are getting ignored. There are tax increases in 2011 and 2013. The fed is printing money. The government is trying to create economic bubbles to make the government numbers look good.
Just look at the GM repayment of $5.8 million:
The $5.8 billion payment will include $4.7 billion to the U.S. Treasury and $1.1 billion to the Canadian government. The money will come from a $16.4 billion escrow fund set up by the two governments as part of GM’s bankruptcy.
So GM is repaying the taxpayer's money by using the taxpayer's money.
This is no way to run a company or economy.
"What's that got to do with Obama?"...
ROFLMAO!
Good one kool-aid drinking anon @ 4/21/2010 9:49 AM...
What's wrong with this picture? When will the bills hit us?
ol MP, still pumping out that happy days is here again spiel...but one of these recoveries is not like the others
There are two issues here. One is whether things are recovering, and the other is if the fundamentals support the future growth of the stock market.
The list deals with the economic recovery, not whether the stock market will keep running.
How many dot com stocks have never reached their prior high even after huge real growth since then?
Anyone own Cisco at $70? Their sales and earnings are 3 times as high as in 1999, and the stock is now $27. The difference is their expected growth is much different now than then. Growth doesn't guarantee stock price increases, just as GDP growth will not snap house prices back up.
Recovery is happening. Several trillion dollars has been dumped into the economy by the Fed's actions and the government. Of course that has an effect. Further growth will come from more confidence. Completely typical after a recession.
But when was the last time government has increased taxes and regulation into a recovery, let alone the same time? Everyone knows the major influences that government has over companies are taxes and regulation. Decrease them and you generally increase growth. Increase them and you generally slow growth.
Comparisons to last year are really easy now. Not so much next year with the Fed winding down, taxes going up, and regulation going up.
I'm riding the market as long as it goes, particularly since there's an election in November. But economic growth doesn't guarantee clear sailing for investments.
A good chunk of that money went to bail out the unions for state workers. The bill for the taxpayers is on its way.
A new Pew Research Center survey finds a perfect storm of conditions associated with distrust of government -- a dismal economy, an unhappy public, bitter partisan-based backlash, and epic discontent with Congress
Like I said, what has any of that got to do with Obama.?
Roflmao is not an answer.
It takes decades to generate a deap seated, general mistrust of government, congress isn't even in his department (Check your constitution). It takes more than a year to turn around an economy, especialy a global economy, even if you are a Republican president witha a Republican congress. And dont forget, the lousy economy was well on its way before he was elected.
Least of all does Obama control backlash from the opposing party, nor is he responsible for people's happiness.
I'm riding the market as long as it goes, particularly since there's an election in November.
There are other ways than just the market to put your money to work.
Consider diversifying.
Yes, we are witnessing a recovery but a very weak recovery and in particular, nonfarm payroll has not much improved and performance of big chips are not really so great and remember, how much liquidity the Fed had pumped into the financial sector to revive the different institutions and we had spent $200 billion to bail out the Fannie and Freddie, not to mention the bunch of banks including Godman Sachs. Given such a massive Quantitative Easing program, we could only see the market having just picked slowly is not at all funny so that we are still a long way before we could be back to normal and even if we can, we are ,perhaps, no longer be the same again.
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