Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Intrade Odds for Obamacare Drop from 70% to 35%

Intrade. I'm not sure what's going on here, any ideas?

(HT: Matt Bixler)

Update: It's back up to 70% (2:33 p.m. EDT)?

26 Comments:

At 3/17/2010 11:24 AM, Blogger xcaverx said...

The last trade I checked last night for no-pass was about 11.5, almost irresistible. If Congress can't or won't make the Slaughter gambit work this week, I think Obamacare is truly dead. But I've thought that before, and it keeps lurching out of its crypt.

 
At 3/17/2010 11:30 AM, Blogger Colin said...

I think the WashPost story yesterday about Pelosi's preference for the Slaughter rule approach is a pretty definitive signal she doesn't have the votes.

Basically I think people on Intrade are betting that she doesn't have the votes for a straight up or down vote and that Dems ultimately lack the stomach for the Slaughter route because of an inevitable public outcry.

 
At 3/17/2010 11:30 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good question. If these boys really had it figured out, we'd all be millionaire via Las Vegas.

 
At 3/17/2010 11:32 AM, Blogger John B. Chilton said...

Insider information? Does Clyburn have an Intrade account?

 
At 3/17/2010 11:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with Colin - Dems don't have the straight up votes and the Slaughter method is unpalitable.

I mean the name of the procedure says it all, I don't think they walk into that mess.

But I have learned never to say never.

 
At 3/17/2010 11:38 AM, Blogger arthurfelter said...

I noticed this comment over at Instapundit:



OBAMACARE took a big plunge on Intrade yesterday.

Maybe it was Dr. Milt Wolf’s TV appearance that did it . . . .

http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/95836/

 
At 3/17/2010 11:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you switch to the "Time and Sales Chart", you'll see that it's back up around 60 or 70. Don't know why it dropped, but it came back up again.

 
At 3/17/2010 12:11 PM, Blogger W.E. Heasley said...

The TradeIn result is suffering from Harry Pelosi and Nancy Reid dyslexic trends trade.

 
At 3/17/2010 12:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The DNC Chairman was on CNBC, lying like the snake he is....

 
At 3/17/2010 12:21 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Maybe it went down because:

"Less than 24 hours after House Democratic leaders floated the idea of using a parliamentary procedure to avoid a recorded vote on the Senate health care bill, a group of Republican lawyers...penned an open letter making clear that such a tactic would not make Democrats immune from attacks on the bill in the fall campaign. Put simply: Republicans believe that House Democrats using the "deem and pass" maneuver in no way prohibits GOP candidates and party committees from attacking them for "voting" for the Senate legislation..."resorting to political and legislative trickery" to try and keep from being attacked in a campaign setting."

Maybe it went back up because:

"Obama's plan won the support of Dennis Kucinich, a former candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination...Kucinich had voted against an earlier version of the health bill in November because it did not go far enough in creating a robust public plan to compete with private insurance."

 
At 3/17/2010 12:28 PM, Blogger Michael said...

There is to blaring constitutional issues from the start.

Spending and taxation bills have to start in the house. This is a bill written in the senate. Even with a up or down vote in the house on the senate bill, it's still unconstitutional.

The second is the house isn't voting on the bill. Until both houses have voted on an identical bill, it can't be presented to the president to become law.

 
At 3/17/2010 12:33 PM, Blogger Methinks said...

Yeah, Obama took Kucinic on a little plane ride on Airforce 1 (at our expense, of course. How else does our royalty travel?) and explained to him that the whole bill is single-payer by proxy.

Every word in the "insurance" policies offered through the exchange (that is, all legal policies) are dictated by the politicians. Fascism. But, since they will constrain the insurance companies' ability to raise premiums in order to appear to be working on behalf of the "American people" (and by that they mean the political class. Shhh!), the unpopular decision to deny coverage will fall on the nominally private insurance companies.

At that point, politicians will become "outraged" about these private insurance companies' "unconscionable" denial of treatment and profess to fix it by making it all government. Single payer explicitly.

Of course, since most Americans are insured through private insurance companies, what they don't know is that medicare and medicaid deny more treatment than private insurance companies.

 
At 3/17/2010 12:37 PM, Blogger Methinks said...

BTW, given the nature of the contract, whether it passes through Slaughter's slaughter of the constitution or by enough actual votes, if any part of the two bills becomes law for any amount of time, the contract trades at 100%.

Another way to look at the contract: It's a guess of how suicidal the democrat party is

 
At 3/17/2010 12:39 PM, Blogger arthurfelter said...

In reply to Methinks' post:

I think Obama also explained to Kucinich that the end-goal is a single payer system, and this first version is to get their foot in the door.

Many supporting politicians of Obamacare have agreed to such: this is only a gateway to single-payer.

 
At 3/17/2010 12:48 PM, Blogger Methinks said...

arthurfelter, that's exactly on the nose. I just elaborated on how I believe that will actually happen.

Plus, Kucinic is a runt. He's a tiny little guy. Obama probably told him if he voted "no", Axelrod will sit on him and squash him like a cockroach. That's usually how the mafia operates. Just remember what we all learned watching the the Sopranos and think of Axelrod as "Big Pussy".

 
At 3/17/2010 1:07 PM, Blogger brodero said...

I see a 78-79 quote 2:06 est 3/17/10

 
At 3/17/2010 1:31 PM, Anonymous Kevin said...

it trades on light volume so it can gyrate a lot

 
At 3/17/2010 1:34 PM, Blogger Rich Cash said...

Intrade market manipulation.
Call in the DOJ, Fed, CFTC, SEC.
Oh....

 
At 3/17/2010 1:36 PM, Blogger Methinks said...

Contact the suicidal Democrats to make yourself heard. It obviously works because if it didn't, they would have had the votes by now.

http://www.nrcc.org/CodeRed/targets/

Here's where the vote stands

http://www.nrcc.org/CodeRed/main.php

I know nobody has the time for this in their uber busy lives, but as far as revolutions go, this is pretty light work

 
At 3/17/2010 1:40 PM, Blogger OA said...

It just looks like panic selling in a thin market. There was a drop in price to 53 at 2:10 AM EST. Then a flood of sales at 2:16 AM and 2:18 AM, down to 35. There wasn't another trade until 6 AM EST at 66.6.

With Kucinich caving in, it spiked near 80.

I'd love to be wrong on this, but I've thought for a long time that this will pass. The self delusion after the Scott Brown victory made it clear that public opinion is only a technicality. They really believe they know best and that once it is passed, more people will like it.

 
At 3/17/2010 1:46 PM, Blogger W.E. Heasley said...

Methinks said...

“Yeah, Obama took Kucinic on a little plane ride on Airforce 1.…..”

They renamed Air Force 1 in honor of the Obama stimulus plan: Spruce Goose 1.

 
At 3/17/2010 2:20 PM, Anonymous morganovich said...

anyone know if these intrade markets have shown significant predictive value?

wondering how seriously to take his.

 
At 3/17/2010 2:48 PM, Blogger Methinks said...

Morganovich,

They are as predictive as securities prices on the exchange.

 
At 3/17/2010 5:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is an interesting paper from GMU showing that manipulation attempts in predictive markets doesn't distort the price accuracy.

http://hanson.gmu.edu/biastest.pdf

 
At 3/17/2010 5:58 PM, Blogger Jet Beagle said...

methinks: "Kucinich is a runt. He's a tiny little guy. Obama probably told him if he voted "no", Axelrod will sit on him and squash him like a cockroach."

Funny!

Kucinich's appearance has always frightened me. He reminds me of some of the bookcover illustrations of "The Mule" from Asimov's "Foundation and Empire". Remember that The Mule was a diminutive mutant who appeared harmless to most. In fact, though, The Mule controlled the thoughts of others and eventually dominated a galaxy. Perhaps Dennis is really controlling ObamaMan.

Fear the dwarf!

Your friend,
John Dewey

 
At 3/18/2010 9:38 AM, Blogger Methinks said...

Yes, my friend. I agree. I fear the dwarf.

 

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