Thursday, February 25, 2010

Growth in Durable Goods Hits 3-Yr. High of 10.2%


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- "Orders for U.S-made durable goods soared 3% in January to a seasonally adjusted $175.7 billion on higher bookings for civilian airplanes, the Commerce Department estimated today. The 3% gain in orders was the biggest gain since July. December's orders were revised sharply higher as well to a 1.9% increase compared with the 1% gain reported last month."

MP: New orders for durable goods in January reached the highest level ($175.7 billion) since November 2008 (see top chart above). The 12-month percentage change in January of 10.2% was the highest annual increase in new orders for durable goods and equipment from U.S. manufacturers since September 2006, more than three years ago, and also marked the 7th consecutive monthly improvement for new orders (see bottom chart above). Add this to the growing list of V-shaped signs of economic recovery, especially in the manufacturing sector.

3 Comments:

At 2/25/2010 11:57 AM, Anonymous morganovich said...

i fear you are cherry picking your data by only looking at the headline number.

this was all aircraft.

apart from that, the picture was pretty bleak with durables orders down significantly. a 2.9% drop ex aircraft doesn't look like a terribly robust recovery to me. this drop is why the market sold off so hard this morning.


Most of the strength in January came from the 126% increase in volatile civilian aircraft orders. Boeing had reported higher bookings in December, but they showed up in the government data in January's report due to timing differences between the reports.

Outside of aircraft, most industrial sectors reported lower demand in January.

Excluding the 15.6% gain in transportation orders, orders fell 0.6% in January to $131 billion after rising 2% in November and December. Read the full report on the government website.

Orders for core civilian capital equipment goods excluding aircraft fell 2.9% in January after rising more than 3% in both November and December. Machinery orders fell 9.7% in January after hefty gains in November and December.

 
At 2/25/2010 12:55 PM, Anonymous Vians said...

Translation:

"New orders for durable goods, led solely by aircraft manufacturing, eked out meager gains from dismal lows to return to 2003 levels."

The aircraft numbers are coming from pre-recession orders which were not deferred or cancelled. The Air Transport Association has said orders are declining and cancellations and deferrals are rising. Aircraft fleets are dropping worldwide by 90 planes a month. They don't expect a recovery until 2012.

 
At 2/25/2010 1:07 PM, Anonymous Novelty said...

Defense aircraft orders were up. My guess is that it is from the recent refueling tanker deal.

Non-defense aircraft orders were down.

 

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