Monday, January 18, 2010

Landslide? Brown With 15 Point Lead (Bellwether)

According to bellwether polling conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17 by Suffolk University:

Brown (55%) leads Coakley (40%) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2%, while 3% are undecided.

In Fitchburg, Brown (55%) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41%), with 2% for Kennedy and 2% undecided.

Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%), with Kennedy polling 1% and 3% undecided.

The bellwether polls are designed to predict outcomes and not margins. Suffolk's bellwether polls have been 96% accurate in picking straight-up winners when taken within three days of an election since 2006.

19 Comments:

At 1/18/2010 4:25 PM, Blogger OA said...

That statewide party affiliation stat is surprising:

Democrats, 36%; Republicans, 12%; unenrolled, 52%

For a week or so I've heard that registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 3 to 1. But no one mentioned that unaffiliated was more than half.

Kinda a key piece of information so I guess it's not surprising that the media largely failed in reporting it.

 
At 1/18/2010 5:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't get too excited you serfs. The Democrat/Union machine is going to make sure that you know your place. You exist to feed their ambitions, and don't forget it:

SEIU has stepped up its involvement in MA in the waning days of the race, sending hundreds of volunteers and hundreds of thousands of dollars to the state on behalf of AG Martha Coakley (D).

The union, one of the most powerful arrows in the Dem quiver, is spending $685K on TV ads touting Coakley and slamming state Sen. Scott Brown (R), and a spokesperson for SEIU says it will have 300 volunteers on the ground on Tuesday.

The heightened activity has some GOPers on edge, and at least one group is worried SEIU could be taking over for ACORN as a top organizational tool benefiting Dem candidates.

National Journal

Democrats and their union cronies - organized against the people.

 
At 1/18/2010 7:34 PM, Anonymous Obey Obama said...

Dems getting ready to go all Acorn on you in MA.

 
At 1/18/2010 7:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great. Let's roll everything back. Let's go back to the good 'ol days of the Rebubs where they were able to start wars for the fun of it (and then bring in another Dem as president so he can escalate it).

 
At 1/18/2010 7:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

... where they were able to start wars for the fun of it ...

And this, is your brain on drugs.

 
At 1/18/2010 8:18 PM, Blogger juandos said...

1.18.2010

538 Model Posits Brown as 3:1 Favorite

by Nate Silver @ 5:26 PM

The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG, Research 2000 and InsiderAdvantage which show worsening numbers for Brown's opponent, Martha Coakley.

 
At 1/18/2010 8:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"And this, is your brain on drugs"

Found those weapons of mass destruction yet?

 
At 1/18/2010 9:23 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

"We have known for many years that Saddam Hussein is seeking and developing weapons of mass destruction."
-- Sen. Ted Kennedy (D, MA), Sept. 27, 2002

"Iraq's search for weapons of mass destruction has proven impossible to deter and we should assume that it will continue for as long as Saddam is in power."
-- Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002

"I will be voting to give the President of the United States the authority to use force -- if necessary -- to disarm Saddam Hussein because I believe that a deadly arsenal of weapons of mass destruction in his hands is a real and grave threat to our security."
-- Sen. John F. Kerry (D, MA), Oct. 9, 2002

"He has systematically violated, over the course of the past 11 years, every significant UN resolution that has demanded that he disarm and destroy his chemical and biological weapons, and any nuclear capacity. This he has refused to do"
-- Rep. Henry Waxman (D, CA), Oct. 10, 2002

"There is unmistakable evidence that Saddam Hussein is working aggressively to develop nuclear weapons and will likely have nuclear weapons within the next five years ... We also should remember we have always underestimated the progress Saddam has made in development of weapons of mass destruction."
-- Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D, WV), Oct 10, 2002

"Without question, we need to disarm Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal, murderous dictator, leading an oppressive regime ... He presents a particularly grievous threat because he is so consistently prone to miscalculation ... And now he is miscalculating America's response to his continued deceit and his consistent grasp for weapons of mass destruction ... So the threat of Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction is real..."
-- Sen. John F. Kerry (D, MA), Jan. 23. 2003

"We begin with the common belief that Saddam Hussein is a tyrant and a threat to the peace and stability of the region. He has ignored the mandate of the United Nations and is building weapons of mass destruction and the means of delivering them."
-- Sen. Carl Levin (D, MI), Sept. 19, 2002

 
At 1/18/2010 10:06 PM, Blogger stevedp86 said...

for the past week...there would be a brown commerical, then a coakley one saying bad things about brown....random commerical....then a brown commerical and then a pro coakley commerical

i can't imagine the amount of money they spent b/c it seemed to be on every channel

 
At 1/18/2010 11:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Expect lots of dead to vote for Coakley - if you can't win, cheat.

After all, it's "the Chicago way".

 
At 1/18/2010 11:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"No, we've had no evidence that Saddam Hussein was involved with September the 11th."

-- George W. Bush, September 18, 2003

"A bit of dithering might have been in order before we went into Iraq in pursuit of non-existent weapons of mass destruction,"

-- George Will, October 2009

"I do not believe and have never seen any evidence to confirm that [Hussein] was involved in 9/11"

-- Dick Cheney, June 1, 2009

“After more than 18 months, the WMD investigation and debriefing of the WMD-related detainees has been exhausted... As matters now stand, the WMD investigation has gone as far as feasible.”

-- Charles Duelfer, 2004

"Amid questions about prewar intelligence, the White House is acknowledging that President Bush was incorrect when he said in his State of the Union address that Iraq recently had sought significant quantities of uranium in Africa."

-- CBS News, July 8, 2003

Barbra Walters: But was it worth it if there were no weapons of mass destruction? Now that we know that that was wrong? Was it worth it?

George W. Bush: Oh, absolutely.

BTW, I'm a libertarian.

 
At 1/19/2010 12:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Russian President Vladimir Putin says that after the 9/11 attacks Moscow warned Washington that Saddam Hussein was planning attacks on the US.

He said Russia's secret service had information on more than one occasion that Iraq was preparing acts of terror in the US and its facilities worldwide.

[...]

Speaking on a visit to Kazakhstan, Mr Putin said Russia had warned the US on several occasions that Iraq was planning "terrorist attacks" on its soil.

"After the events of 11 September 2001, and before the start of the military operation in Iraq, Russian special services several times received such information and passed it on to their American colleagues," he told reporters.

He said the information received by Russian intelligence suggested Iraq was planning attacks in the United States, "and beyond its borders on American military and civilian targets".

Putin says Iraq planned US attack, BBC

"If the attacks of September 11 cost the lives of 3,000 civilians, how much will the size of losses in 50 states within 100 cities if it were attacked in the same way in which New York and Washington were? What would happen if hundreds of planes attacked American cities?"

- Saddam Hussein, Al-Rafidayn, September 11, 2002 (State-controlled newspaper)

 
At 1/19/2010 12:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iraq Involved In 1973 World Trade Center Bombing

... until now, it has been unclear how the authorities knew where to look for the cars. Shortly after Al-Jawary planted the bombs around March 4, the NSA intercepted a message revealing the location of them.

"When we picked that one up, it was a shocker," said Jim Welsh, who served as an NSA analyst from 1969 to 1974.

Declassified CIA records indicate the FBI and NYPD began looking for Al-Jawary's bombs at 7:15 p.m. on March 6, 1973 — not long after the NSA intercepted the message about the plot.

The two bomb-rigged cars on Fifth Avenue were towed March 5 and were later found at impound yards. The third bomb at Kennedy Airport's El-Al cargo terminal was discovered early March 7 and disabled by Terence McTigue of the NYPD bomb squad.

McTigue said the FBI never told him how they knew the car was at JFK, but he assumed they had obtained the information through an intercepted communication of some kind.

Welsh said someone transmitted the message using official Iraqi diplomatic communications in the U.S. He believed it originated at the U.N. Iraqi mission in New York.

<a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ny_crime/2009/02/02/2009-02-02_nsa_helped_uncover_1973_nyc_bombing_plot.html>New York Daily News</a>

 
At 1/19/2010 12:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Saddam Hussein / Osama Bin Laden Alliance, ABC, 1999

Saddam link to Bin Laden, Guardian UK, 1999

Bush was still Governor of Texas.

 
At 1/19/2010 12:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bush Lied? Think Again

But dive into Rockefeller's report, in search of where exactly President Bush lied about what his intelligence agencies were telling him about the threat posed by Saddam Hussein, and you may be surprised by what you find.

On Iraq's nuclear weapons program? The president's statements "were generally substantiated by intelligence community estimates."

On biological weapons, production capability and those infamous mobile laboratories? The president's statements "were substantiated by intelligence information."

On chemical weapons, then? "Substantiated by intelligence information."

On weapons of mass destruction overall (a separate section of the intelligence committee report)? "Generally substantiated by intelligence information." Delivery vehicles such as ballistic missiles? "Generally substantiated by available intelligence." Unmanned aerial vehicles that could be used to deliver WMDs? "Generally substantiated by intelligence information."

As you read through the report, you begin to think maybe you've mistakenly picked up the minority dissent. But, no, this is the Rockefeller indictment. So, you think, the smoking gun must appear in the section on Bush's claims about Saddam Hussein's alleged ties to terrorism.

But statements regarding Iraq's support for terrorist groups other than al-Qaeda "were substantiated by intelligence information." Statements that Iraq provided safe haven for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and other terrorists with ties to al-Qaeda "were substantiated by the intelligence assessments," and statements regarding Iraq's contacts with al-Qaeda "were substantiated by intelligence information." The report is left to complain about "implications" and statements that "left the impression" that those contacts led to substantive Iraqi cooperation.

In the report's final section, the committee takes issue with Bush's statements about Saddam Hussein's intentions and what the future might have held. But was that really a question of misrepresenting intelligence, or was it a question of judgment that politicians are expected to make?

Washington Post

 
At 1/19/2010 12:54 AM, Blogger W.E. Heasley said...

Anonymous said...

“Expect lots of dead to vote for Coakley - if you can't win, cheat.”

Do you think this is the same 10,000 dead Social Security recipients that got mailed a $250 stimulus check? Maybe a data base cross reference is in order?

 
At 1/19/2010 12:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

... one of the most sensational charges leveled against the Bush White House -- that it orchestrated the leak of Ms. Plame's identity to ruin her career and thus punish Mr. Wilson -- is untrue.

Nevertheless, it now appears that the person most responsible for the end of Ms. Plame's CIA career is Mr. Wilson. Mr. Wilson chose to go public with an explosive charge, claiming -- falsely, as it turned out -- that he had debunked reports of Iraqi uranium-shopping in Niger and that his report had circulated to senior administration officials.

Washington Post

The last major remnant of Saddam Hussein's nuclear program — a huge stockpile of concentrated natural uranium — reached a Canadian port Saturday to complete a secret U.S. operation that included a two-week airlift from Baghdad and a ship voyage crossing two oceans.

The removal of 550 metric tons of "yellowcake" — the seed material for higher-grade nuclear enrichment — was a significant step toward closing the books on Saddam's nuclear legacy. It also brought relief to U.S. and Iraqi authorities who had worried the cache would reach insurgents or smugglers crossing to Iran to aid its nuclear ambitions.

What is now left is the final and complicated push to clean up the remaining radioactive debris at the former Tuwaitha nuclear complex about 12 miles (19 kilometers) south of Baghdad — using teams that include Iraqi experts recently trained in the Chernobyl fallout zone in Ukraine.

"Everyone is very happy to have this safely out of Iraq," said a senior U.S. official who outlined the nearly three-month operation to The Associated Press. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Fox News

 
At 1/19/2010 1:02 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Over the weekend former federal prosecutor and the head of the non-governmental International Intelligence Summit, John Loftus, released a report on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program. His report was based on a private study of captured Iraqi documents. These were the unread Arabic language documents that U.S. forces seized, but had not managed to translate after overthrowing Saddam Hussein in 2003.

After a prolonged battle between Congress and then director of U.S. National Intelligence John Negroponte, President George W. Bush ordered those documents posted on a public access Web site last year. They were taken down after it was discovered that among the Iraqi documents were precise descriptions of how to build nuclear weapons.

FrontPageMag

'Report on Sept. 6 strike to show Saddam transferred WMDs to Syria'

An upcoming joint US-Israel report on the September 6 IAF strike on a Syrian facility will claim that former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein transferred weapons of mass destruction to the country, Channel 2 stated Monday.

Jerusalem Post

Audiotapes of Saddam Hussein and his aides underscore the Bush administration's argument that Baghdad was determined to rebuild its arsenal of weapons of mass destruction once the international community had tired of inspections and left the Iraqi dictator alone.

In addition to the captured tapes, U.S. officials are analyzing thousands of pages of newly translated Iraqi documents that tell of Saddam seeking uranium from Africa in the mid-1990s.

Washington Times

BTW, I'm a libertarian.

BTW - You don't know your ass from your elbow

 
At 1/19/2010 1:13 PM, Blogger juandos said...

From the Washington News Alert:

“We see dead people”: 116,483 registered voters in Massachusetts are dead

From Fox News: Sarin, Mustard Gas Discovered Separately in Iraq
Monday, May 17, 2004

 

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