Jobless Claims Drop for 12th Week; Falling to Below 500,000 For First Time Since Nov. 2008
The Department of Labor reported today that jobless claims (four-week moving average) dropped for the 12th straight week, and fell below 500,000 for the first time since November 8, 2008. The 16,500 drop in jobless claims to 496,500 from last week's 513,000 was the third largest weekly decline this year, behind a 22,000 drop in July and a 26,000 drop in January.It might be happening slowly, but the labor market is gradually recovering.
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Yep, things are moving along nicely. Unemployment claims which reach normal levels in just 17.6 more months. Hard to reconcile declining initial claims, though, with job losses still increasing.
The Phiily Fed Index showed contraction in 37 states and the ATA reported the second straight month of truck tonnage declines.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, foreclosures, past-due loans, and commercial real estate vacancy rates all pushed to new cycle highs and even some historical record highs.
Ardent, you forgot to mention that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell in November after falling in October. Durable goods orders and shipments declined in October according to the Census Bureau
Mortgage applications for purchases and refinancings are down, despite record low interest rates.
496,500 MORE people will not have much reason to feel thankful this week but, on the bright side, 16,500 more people dodged that bullet compared to last week. Since this is a short work week and employers are not completely heartless, I'm sure claims will fall some more in the coming weeks.
New unemployment claims is only half the unemployment story. New hires are way down and unemployment can't get better until new hires is greater than new claims.
We are a long way from 'good'.
Here in Ore-gone, the unemployment rate just fell.
Mind you it wasn't because people got jobs. It's because over 40,000 people dropped out of the labor force since April. They certainly aren't drawing unemployment benefits since that requires a work search.
Many people think our high minimum wage is keeping unemployment high. A lot of retirees and nonworking spouse started looking for work so that probably inflated the rate, but we've had nonstop job losses every month.
House sales are up but the properties are garbage. I thought about buying an investment home but there's nothing nice enough I could rent out.
I've never seen it this bad in OR. Whoever says stuff is getting better has seen the movie The Postman too many times. It's more like going postal. Portland offices are turning into ghost towns.
I don't think you can say the labour market has started recovering until unemployment peaks.
That could be 12 months away.
Oh and what happens when the stimulus runs out?
I would like to bring to your attention the $59B domino, known as Dubai World Investment. I guarantee you that a second stimulus EMERGENCY FUNDING will be pushed by our Congress and President, over the holidays, to bail out foreign banking interests. Also keep an eye on the enormous debt owned by Deutsche Bank. The $2T delayed the inevitable by a year, and did nothing more than reflate a bubble in your beloved emerging markets, stocks, and commodities.
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